Sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific have remained above the +2.0°C threshold for a "super" El Niño for more than a week, reaching an anomaly of around +2.1°C by mid-July — more than a month earlier than the 1997/98 and 2015/16 events that mark the previous benchmark super El Niños, according to climate data tracked by analysts including climate scientist Zeke Hausfather. No El Niño since 1982 has warmed this fast by July.

As IntelliNews reported on July 13, the planet's seas are on track to be as warm as bath water in places, arriving on top of a climate system already running hot: the world is on course to blow past the Paris Agreement's goal of capping warming at 1.5-2C above pre-industrial levels, heading instead for an increase of 2.7-3.1C by 2100 without drastic emissions cuts — a trajectory that could leave three billion people in barely habitable heat zones by 2070.

The early arrival of the super El Niño is compounding what is shaping up as the hottest year on record. Europe's June heatwave was already the most severe ever recorded, IntelliNews reported, and records are falling elsewhere too: Yenbo, on Saudi Arabia's northwest Red Sea coast, hit 51.0C — the first time the 50C and 51C marks have ever been recorded there — while Abu Simbel and Shalatin in Egypt logged their hottest nights on record, with minimum temperatures of 34.4C and 32.4C respectively.

Ocean temperatures more broadly have pushed into "uncharted territory", IntelliNews reported, part of what has become an annual "disaster season" of extreme summer weather that IntelliNews has tracked getting worse year after year.

The heat is also inflicting a mounting economic cost. Extreme heat could wipe $638bn off the four largest EU economies by 2030 — including $240bn from France, $147bn from Italy, $131bn from Germany and $120bn from Spain — according to analysis by Allianz Trade reported by Fortune. Allianz Trade estimates climate-related losses could shave 5-7% off the EU's cumulative GDP between 2026 and 2030, while the UK's June heatwave alone cost an estimated GBP2.36bn, according to think tank Verdant.

The super El Niño is also rippling through emerging markets. Analysts at UBS have warned it threatens to fuel inflation and complicate rate cuts across Latin America, while in the Middle East forecasters have flagged it as a risk that could compound the inflationary shock from the Iran war.