Moody's Ratings raised Argentina's long-term sovereign credit rating to B3 from Caa1 on July 21 and revised the outlook to positive from stable, marking the third such upgrade in three months and offering fresh validation of President Javier Milei's radical economic overhaul.

The upgrade follows earlier rating rises from Fitch Ratings in May and from S&P Global Ratings in June, leaving all three major agencies in tune on Argentina's rating for the first time in more than a decade.

"The three major rating agencies are aligned at B- for the first time in over a decade," Secretary of Economic Policy José Luis Daza wrote on social media, adding that the move gives a green light to institutional investors whose mandates require ratings from two or three agencies or that rely on an average score. Economy Minister Luis Caputo also welcomed the decision publicly.

Moody's said sustained fiscal surpluses, slowing inflation and the continuation of economic liberalisation were reinforcing policy credibility and reducing macroeconomic volatility. It also pointed to a stronger external position, supported by robust export performance, rising foreign direct investment in energy and mining, and improved access to external financing.

The agency said the positive outlook reflected expectations that Argentina's credit profile would keep strengthening if structural improvements in the external accounts continued alongside ongoing macroeconomic stabilisation. It flagged political risks ahead of the October 2027 general election but said the range of likely policy outcomes had narrowed compared with previous electoral cycles, raising the probability of policy continuity and sustained gains in external liquidity and debt repayment capacity.

Even so, Moody's said "political risk nonetheless remains a key constraint on the rating," warning that a shift in the political landscape after the 2027 vote could alter the economic policy course and risk reintroducing distortions in investment, trade, the foreign exchange market and fiscal management.

Moody's also raised Argentina's local-currency ceiling to Ba3 from B1 and its foreign-currency ceiling to B1 from B2, citing greater predictability in government actions and reduced state intervention in the economy and financial system, balanced against persistent political risks and gradually improving external imbalances.

The agency forecast economic growth of 3.4% in 2026 and 3.5% in 2027, pointing to large-scale investment in hydrocarbons, mining and infrastructure, including expanded natural gas transport capacity from the Vaca Muerta shale formation. It said the government's flagship Incentive Regime for Large Investments (RIGI), which offers tax and regulatory benefits for long-term capital in export-oriented sectors, had drawn a project pipeline worth $141.7bn, equivalent to roughly 20% of GDP, of which $45bn was already under construction.

Moody's cautioned that Argentina needed to sustain its macroeconomic adjustment until a greater share of those projects come on stream from 2027 onward, noting that external buffers remained insufficient to absorb a political or balance-of-payments shock. It also cited lingering social challenges, including labour market rigidity, the residual effects of inflation and economic inequality, though it said sector rebalancing should support real wage growth in export industries even as risks persist for domestically focused sectors and services.

Argentina's dollar bonds and New York-listed shares extended gains on July 22, La Nación reported, in the first full session of trading since the announcement. Argentina's country-risk index, as measured by JPMorgan, fell 11 points to 410 basis points, a drop of 2.6%, according to Rava brokerage data cited by La Nación, erasing gains from the prior session when it closed at 421. The gauge remained six points above its lowest level under President Javier Milei, touched on July 10 at 402 points. Bank shares led gains among Argentine stocks trading in New York, with Banco Supervielle up 4.4%, Grupo Financiero Galicia up 3.7% and Banco Macro up 3.2%, while Mercado Libre slipped 0.5%.

Tobias Sanchez, a portfolio manager at Cocos, told La Nación the upgrade was "not surprising" given that markets had already priced in the move following the earlier actions by Fitch and S&P. "When all three indicators point in the same direction, the signal ceases to be an isolated piece of data and becomes a trend," Sanchez said, adding that Argentina remained "risky debt" and "still far from investment grade" even as the upgrade widens the pool of funds able to invest in the country.

Daza, speaking separately to Ámbito, said "green shoots are already appearing" in the economy and that the upgrade confirmed the assessment of the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral institutions, which he said were "not tied to the short-term political cycle." He told Ámbito the government aims for Argentina to reach investment-grade status by 2031 and, in a later interview with Radio Mitre argued that elections do not by themselves cause financial crises. "What generates crises are macroeconomic imbalances," Daza said, adding that poverty had fallen from above 50% to "numbers in the twenties" under the current administration.

The IMF's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, is due to visit Argentina next week, in what will be her first visit to the country in her current role, according to Reuters. Georgieva plans to meet Milei and Caputo during the trip. The fund is forecasting Argentina's GDP growth will slow to 3.5% in 2026 from 4.4% last year, before rebounding to 4% in 2027 ₋ the year in which Argentina faces a foreign-currency debt test, with more than $23bn in principal payments due, or over $32bn including interest, according to IMF data. Caputo has said the government expects to meet its debt obligations through 2027 using multilateral loans, privatisation proceeds and local bond issuance, while holding off on a return to international bond markets for now.