Zambian President Hakainde Hichilema was sworn in for a second five-year term on September 1 after an election that delivered policy continuity but left a trail of disputed results, a contested attempt to challenge the outcome in court, and treason charges against his main rival.

Zambians voted on August 13. Counting and the announcement of results were suspended for six hours the following day after violent incidents targeting election officials and allegations of ballot-box theft.

The Electoral Commission declared Hichilema the winner on August 18 with about 60% of the vote, against roughly 38% for Brian Mundubile.

The Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG), an independent nonpartisan election-monitoring coalition, later found that the official totals fell outside the ranges produced by its parallel verification exercise. It identified 30 constituencies where votes had been added, artificially increasing turnout, while concluding that Hichilema still won more than 50% and that the discrepancies did not change the presidential outcome.

Disputed result, filing dispute

Mundubile, who ran on the ticket of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP) representing the broader Tonse Pamodzi opposition alliance, said on August 19 that he would challenge the result in the Constitutional Court.

The attempt to lodge the petition became a controversy of its own. Zambia’s top courts, including the Constitutional Court, were closed on August 24 as opposition lawyers sought to file before the constitutional petition period expired, with the Judiciary citing security concerns.

The Judiciary subsequently said no presidential election petition had been formally recorded at the Constitutional Court Registry. Chief Justice Mumba Malila nevertheless confirmed on August 25 that documents described as “The People’s Presidential Petition” had been sent to his private email address.

Malila described the method as “highly irregular” but referred the documents to the Constitutional Court to determine whether they could be accepted as a valid filing. A lawyer acting for Mundubile said an earlier attempt to submit the petition electronically through the Registry had bounced.

Mundubile and his running mate, Makebi Zulu, were taken into police custody on August 27 and formally charged with treason two days later. Authorities have disclosed few details about the alleged offence, while Mundubile has previously described allegations against him as fabricated.

The charges followed an earlier security operation involving Mundubile’s associates in which 11 people were arrested after an exchange of gunfire. Former minister Mutotwe Kafwaya was killed during the operation. Authorities linked the raid to alleged threats to national security; opposition figures denied the accusations.

Hichilema was sworn in on September 1 after the government proceeded on the basis that no valid presidential election petition had been filed.

Unsurprisingly, Hichilema did not comment directly on his opponent’s detention in his inauguration speech on Tuesday, but the 61-year-old president did say that the “pursuit of political power must never come at the expense of peace, security and stability in our country”.

Peaceful vote, troubled count… but the markets choose continuity

Although regional observers said election day voting was largely peaceful, they raised concerns about the wider electoral environment and the handling of results.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) Electoral Observation Mission reported a calm and peaceful atmosphere at 275 of the 277 polling stations it visited. It also recorded, but said it could not verify, opposition complaints of state-media bias, misuse of public resources and incidents of intimidation, assault, abduction and property damage during the campaign.

The European Union Election Observation Mission said the quality of tabulation deteriorated significantly after counting resumed on August 14, citing procedural delays and extended breaks. It also said a heavy military presence at some tallying centres was reportedly intimidating and coincided with fewer party agents and citizen observers.

Investors, so far, have been less troubled. When Hichilema came into office in 2021 after a landslide victory, Zambia had not only recently defaulted on its international debt, but it also had an annual inflation rate above 24%. The macroeconomic picture now is much rosier.

Zambia’s Eurobonds returned 0.8% in dollar terms between the election and Hichilema’s inauguration, compared with 0.3% for the broader African market, according to JPMorgan bond-index data cited by Reuters. US bank Citi upgraded Zambia’s international bonds to overweight and said it planned to buy local government debt.

The attraction is easy to see. Hichilema’s first term was dominated by Zambia’s recovery from its 2020 sovereign default, a lengthy debt restructuring and an International Monetary Fund (IMF)-backed reform programme. The IMF said in May that restructuring agreements covered about 94% of the debt within the restructuring perimeter and forecast 4.3% economic growth in 2026.

Zambia is also seeking a successor IMF programme after its previous $1.7bn facility ended in January. Finance Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said in July that the government hoped to reach an agreement by the end of 2026.

But the macroeconomic repair has not been felt evenly. Annual inflation eased to 6.2% in August from 6.5% in July, but cost-of-living pressures remained a prominent election issue and helped Mundubile tap dissatisfaction among voters who had seen less benefit from the headline recovery.

For Hichilema, turning stabilisation into faster growth, jobs and household gains may prove harder than persuading bondholders that Zambia is again creditworthy.

If for bondholders, all of this ultimately points to policy continuity, for Zambia’s institutions, the picture is less reassuring. Christopher Vandome, a senior research fellow at London-based think tank Chatham House, told Reuters that investors could be displaying “a bit of short-sightedness”, warning that weaker institutions could ultimately undermine the environment for durable investment.

Copper and the second-term bet

The president’s second term is expected to place particular emphasis on mining as a whole, while copper remains central to Hichilema’s economic strategy. Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer after the Democratic Republic of Congo, produced 890,346 tonnes of copper in 2025 and is seeking to more than triple annual output to 3mn tonnes by 2031.

“Hichilema can point to a strong economic record. GDP has expanded by a solid ~5% p.a. during his term, while inflation has fallen from a peak of 24.6% y/y in 2021 to 6.5% y/y in July. This was helped by the surge in copper prices during his time in office. But the president can take some credit for the recovery in copper production, which rose to 0.89mn tonnes in 2025, the highest since Zambia’s independence in 1964,” wrote David Omojomolo, Africa Economist at Capital Economics, ahead of the vote.

“The improvement in macro stability creates good foundations for sustained growth, but what remains to be seen is whether Hichilema can move from crisis management to structural reforms. Ambitious plans to increase copper production to 3mn tonnes a year by 2031 are welcome, but we think as much emphasis needs to be placed on processing and adding value along Zambia’s mining supply chain […]

“And while Zambia’s investment attractiveness is amongst the highest in the region, there is still much scope to improve the operating environment, from addressing electricity constraints to improving logistics.”

The copper mining expansion drive under Hichilema has drawn investment from companies including First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM), Barrick Mining (NYSE: B; TSX: ABX), China's JCHX Mining Management (SSE: 603979), privately held International Resources Holding and US-backed KoBold Metals.

Achieving the 3mn-tonne target will require substantial investment beyond the mines themselves. Industry executives estimate Zambia needs at least 2,000 MW of additional power capacity to support the planned expansion, while miners have also called for improvements in exploration incentives, processing capacity and transport infrastructure. Mining accounts for around 70% of Zambia’s export earnings and more than 10% of GDP, making the sector’s expansion central to Hichilema’s broader growth strategy.

Hichilema's government has sought to revive projects, provide greater regulatory certainty and attract billions of dollars of mining investment as global demand for copper and other critical minerals rises. The sector is central to efforts to create jobs, increase export revenues and broaden an economic recovery that has yet to translate into improved living standards for many Zambians.

“By our estimates, copper export revenues are likely to be about 8% of GDP higher this year than last, more than offsetting the weaker terms of trade pressures from the energy shock. This should also keep the external position on better footing, with the current account deficit moving into surplus by 2028, meaning the kwacha does not lose too much of its 18% year-to-date gains against the dollar,” Omojomolo wrote.

“The public finances have also been repaired under Hichilema’s watch. While a long and tortuous process, Zambia has now made substantial progress restructuring external debt, including agreements with China and official creditors, alongside navigating tricky commercial creditor talks in parallel.”

The country's mineral wealth has also placed Lusaka at the centre of growing competition between the United States and China. Chinese companies have established a major position in Zambia's mining industry, while Washington has sought greater US participation in African critical minerals supply chains.