Ukraine presents roadmap to recovery

Ukraine presents roadmap to recovery
Ukraine seeking full access to EU and G7 markets to promote economic recovery once Russo-Ukraine war is over. / bne library
By Dominic Culverwell in Berlin May 3, 2022

Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko presented the roadmap for Ukraine’s economic recovery at the international conference "After the War: Rethinking the Future of Civil Society", Ukraine Business News reported on May 3. 

"Post-war reconstruction of Ukraine will be one of the largest projects since the well-known Marshall Plan. Its implementation will become a mission for the whole civilised world, because today we are fighting not only for ourselves but for the global security as well," Svyrydenko said.

According to the Ministry of Economy of Ukraine, the nine-point plan is as follows:


  • Full access to the EU and G7 markets to help manufacturers integrate into global retail chains and increase exports. 
  • Obtaining a candidate status and then full membership in the EU to access the EU's structural funds.
  • Building an economy on the principles of deregulation and liberalisation.
  • Establishment of logistics routes in the western direction
  • The transition from the export of raw materials to processing.
  • Development of the domestic military-industrial complex.
  • Self-sufficiency in energy, which will increase domestic gas production and develop nuclear power.
  • Climate modernisation. The creation of new facilities in various industries must consider the principles of a “green economy”.
  • Utilisation of domestic companies not less than 60% of the total expenditure, ensuring that Ukrainian companies and producers will be involved in the reconstruction of Ukraine.

Svyrydenko emphasised the need to form partnerships with the G7 countries and the EU to access key technology and financial resources to help large-scale rebuilding projects.

“One of the key approaches may be to provide state guarantees to their companies to invest in Ukraine,” she said. 

Moreover, the government is particularly focused on the restoration of transport and social infrastructure which has been devastated by the Russian invasion. The cost of damage to Ukraine’s infrastructure is estimated to be around $80bn, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. 

The government noted that rebuilding infrastructure is crucial for the millions of Ukrainian refugees who want to return home. 

International support has provided Ukraine with significant funds to help rebuild the country. The G7 finance ministers will provide Ukraine with $24bn, whilst the World Bank has pledged a prodigious $170bn aid package for multiple countries struggling with the impact of the war in Ukraine. 

However, the overall economic damage is huge. The total cost of the war is said to be around $600bn. This includes GDP decline, investment cessation, labour outflows, additional defence and social support costs. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Ukraine’s economy could collapse by 35% as a result of the war, whilst the World Bank made an even more dire prediction that Ukraine’s economy will shrink by 45%.

The government has already utilised various means to raise funds. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) recently repurchased UAH50bn worth of military bonds. As of April 28, the portfolio of military bonds owned by the NBU amounted to UAH70bn ($2.2bn).

The Ministry of Finance raised UAH6.17bn ($203mn) for the state budget on 14 April. Investors were offered two issues of UAH military bonds with 6-month and 1.3-year maturities at respective rates of 10% and 11%.