Rising separatist rhetoric in Bosnia & Herzegovina, growing concerns over foreign influence and uncertainty surrounding the future of the country's international oversight mechanisms have prompted renewed warnings about stability in the Western Balkans, according to a report published ahead of a debate in Britain's House of Lords.

The briefing, prepared by the House of Lords Library before a June 11 debate on Bosnia's political and security situation, highlights increasing tensions in the country more than three decades after the outbreak of the Bosnian war and nearly 31 years after the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the conflict.

The report was published as Bosnia prepares for national elections in October and as international officials search for a successor to Christian Schmidt, the international high representative whose resignation was announced in May.

Schmidt, who remains in office until a replacement is appointed, recently warned the United Nations Security Council that Bosnia's security situation remained "stable but fragile".

However, he cautioned that "stability should not be mistaken for institutional health", pointing to persistent disputes over the interpretation of the Dayton peace accord, challenges to state institutions and continued questioning of Bosnia's territorial integrity by leaders of Republika Srpska, the country's Serb-majority entity.

The House of Lords report notes that tensions have intensified in recent years under the influence of former Republika Srpska president Milorad Dodik, whose repeated threats to weaken Bosnia's central institutions and pursue closer alignment with neighbouring Serbia have alarmed Western governments.

Dodik, who was convicted in February 2025 for defying decisions made by the High Representative, became a focal point of the country's latest political crisis. Following his conviction, the RS National Assembly passed legislation rejecting the authority of Bosnia's state-level judicial and law enforcement institutions within the entity.

Schmidt described the move at the time as a "hint at de facto secession".

Although Dodik was subsequently banned from holding public office for six years, the report notes that he continued to wield influence until leaving office in October 2025 and remains a powerful political figure through close allies.

His successor as Republika Srpska president, Siniša Karan, has signalled continuity rather than change. According to the House of Lords briefing, Karan pledged to continue Dodik's policies "with ever greater force".

The report also points to controversy surrounding Karan's election in November 2025, which required a partial rerun after Bosnia's Central Election Commission identified what it called "irregularities".

The political tensions have coincided with broader concerns about democratic governance and human rights.

Mary Lawlor, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights defenders, warned that activists face mounting pressure in a country still grappling with deep divisions.

According to the report, Lawlor said that "human rights defenders are working in a society that is still deeply divided, where institutions are susceptible to political influence, corruption is widespread and patriarchal views remain prevalent".

Foreign influence remains another major source of concern. Russia has consistently supported Republika Srpska's leadership and opposed the Office of the High Representative, the international body responsible for overseeing implementation of the Dayton agreement.

Moscow backed Karan's election and criticised what it described as outside interference in Bosnian politics. The House of Lords report cites analysis from the European Council on Foreign Relations which argues that "Russia's main goal in [Bosnia] over more than two decades has been to keep the state divided and dysfunctional, and to prevent it from developing its own foreign policy".

The UK and the US imposed sanctions on Dodik and other Bosnian Serb figures in 2022, accusing them of undermining Bosnia's institutions. While British sanctions remain in force, Washington lifted restrictions on several Western Balkan individuals and entities in late 2025 after what it described as constructive actions by Republika Srpska's authorities.

The issue featured prominently during a semi-annual UN Security Council debate on Bosnia in May. Delegates from numerous countries expressed support for Bosnia's territorial integrity, democratic reforms and aspirations to join the European Union.

Denis Bećirović, chair of Bosnia's rotating presidency, accused Republika Srpska's leadership of obstructing the country's progress toward European and Euro-Atlantic integration.

Several delegates also warned about the dangers of inflammatory nationalist rhetoric. Representatives from Panama and Pakistan cautioned that the 1995 genocide at Srebrenica had "started with words" portraying communities as threats, while Colombia urged political leaders to reject historical revisionism and avoid glorifying wartime atrocities.

The future role of the high representative emerged as another point of division.

Russia called the Office of the High Representative "the main source of instability" and demanded its closure. China argued that the institution's extraordinary powers "should not be prolonged".

Western governments, however, defended the office's role. France praised Schmidt's stewardship, while Britain reiterated its support for what it described as a "fully empowered high representative".

Speaking at the Security Council, Britain's chargé d'affaires to the United Nations, James Kariuki, said Bosnia's future could not be "held hostage by divisive politics".

He added that Britain remained deeply concerned by developments in the country and urged political leaders to reject narratives that could deepen ethnic divisions.

Outside government, policy experts have urged stronger international action.

The Standing Group on Atrocity Crimes, a network of lawyers, parliamentarians and policy specialists, warned last year that Bosnia faced "real existential risks". The group highlighted the possibility of secessionist moves by Republika Srpska and expressed concern about nationalist pressures from neighbouring states as well as Russia's role in supporting destabilisation.

The group has called for measures including strengthened international peacekeeping support and increased investment in peace-building initiatives.

Britain's government says it is already taking steps to bolster Bosnia's resilience, including support to counter Russian disinformation and cyber threats as well as deploying military personnel to assist security efforts.

During a House of Lords session on June 2, Foreign Office minister Baroness Chapman reaffirmed Britain's commitment to Bosnia's sovereignty and stability. With elections scheduled for October, she said the government was monitoring increasing anti-Dayton rhetoric, Islamophobia and other divisive narratives.

The minister also stressed the importance of selecting a successor to Schmidt who can help maintain commitment to the Dayton agreement and bring Bosnia's communities together.