A student-led electoral list has taken the lead over Serbia's long-ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) for the first time in a public opinion survey, underscoring how nearly two years of anti-government protests are reshaping the country's political landscape.

The survey, conducted in June by Serbia's CRTA election watchdog and Stanford University's Democracy Action Lab (DAL) and published on July 15, found that among decided voters, 44.9% would support the Student List, compared with 35.7% for President Aleksandar Vučić's SNS. The Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), the SNS's long-time coalition partner, stood at 3.8%, while no other party reached the electoral threshold.

The findings are the first published poll to place the Student List ahead of the ruling party, suggesting sustained support for the country's student-led protest movement is beginning to translate into electoral backing.

The survey found that 12% of respondents remained undecided, while 9% said they would not vote.

The poll comes as Serbia prepares for early parliamentary and presidential elections expected later this year after months of mounting political pressure on Vučić's government.

Student-led protests have dominated Serbian politics for the past 20 months after the collapse of a concrete canopy at Novi Sad's railway station in November 2024 that killed 16 people. Many Serbians blamed corruption and weak institutions for the disaster, triggering the country's largest demonstrations in decades.

Hundreds of thousands have joined rallies in Belgrade, Novi Sad and other cities demanding accountability for the tragedy, institutional reforms and action against corruption.

After months of demonstrations, Vučić announced last month that he would resign as president and call early elections by the end of the year. Constitutionally barred from seeking another consecutive presidential term, he plans to seek the post of prime minister if his party wins, while backing a political ally for the presidency.

The Student List has yet to announce its candidates, saying it intends to field respected public figures rather than career politicians and delaying the announcement to shield potential nominees from tabloid smear campaigns.

Beyond voting intentions, the survey painted a picture of deep public dissatisfaction with Serbia's democratic institutions.

Six in ten respondents said democracy was the best political system, but an equal proportion said democracy was not functioning in Serbia. Trust in key state institutions remained low, with 34% expressing confidence in the government and 31% in parliament.

Trust in the presidency has fallen sharply, with 35% of respondents saying they trusted the president, down from 60% in February 2023.

The research also highlighted stark political polarisation driven by media consumption. Supporters of the Student List and those who rely on independent media or social networks expressed sharply different views on democracy, corruption and state institutions than voters who primarily consume pro-government media.

Among Student List supporters, 85% said democracy was the best form of government, compared with 38% of SNS voters.

Around two-thirds of respondents said the president and government should remain bound by constitutional limits regardless of public support, although about 80% of SNS supporters said strong executive power without parliamentary oversight was acceptable.

Corruption remained one of citizens' biggest concerns, with more than half describing it as an extremely serious problem. Thirty-eight percent blamed the political system as a whole, while 16% held the current government directly responsible.

Support for the protest movement has remained unchanged at about 60% since April last year, the survey found, while 62% of respondents said they were concerned about police use of force against demonstrators.

The findings broadly align with another recent survey by the Belgrade Centre for Security Policy, which found that most Serbians believe the country is moving in the wrong direction.