A number of indicators point to the stagnation of consumer spending in Russia, which for years has been the main driver of economic growth.

As followed closely by bne IntelliNews, the signs of a slowdown in Russia are clear, with analysts guessing whether the economy overheated by the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine is headed for a “soft” or “hard” landing.

Whether the Russian economy is headed for a recession and the exhaustion of its growth drivers is now a part of policy debate.

Stagnating consumer demand is yet another warning signal for Russian authorities.

Russian consumer spending stagnated in real terms, rising just 1.4% year on year in June 2025, according to Kommersant daily citing SberIndex survey compiled by Russia’s largest lender Sberbank.

The data signals a cooling trend in consumer demand after a post-pandemic spending surge further fuelled by military spending and higher incomes on a tight labour market. 

According to SberIndex, real consumer spending in Russia fell by 0.1% y/y in the week ending July 13. This mirrors the pattern seen in late June, where monthly real spending grew only 1.4% y/y to RUB7 trillion ($79.5bn), barely outpacing inflation. Month-on-month dynamics were nearly flat, with food spending down 0.6% and non-food down 0.2%.

A similar concerning pattern is reflected in Alfa Bank's July 2025 report on the consumer sector, also cited by Kommersant. 

Spending in 2Q25 was weaker than in 1Q25, particularly for food and non-food goods. Seasonal categories like tourism, healthcare and education buoyed the overall expenditure. 

Analysts also noted a fall in spending on marketplaces and stressed that nominal growth is primarily inflation-driven, while the physical volume of goods purchased remains flat,  especially in essential categories.

In addition, the analysts surveyed by Kommersant suggest that the spending surge in 1Q25 was an anomaly, fuelled by delayed demand for durable goods such as electronics, appliances, and renovation materials. 

Thus 2Q25 could mark the start of a longer-term trend of waning consumer demand and a return to inflation-driven growth that could persist until 2030, exacerbated by Russia's demographic challenges, the analysts warn.

In addition, slowing employment and real wage growth, stagnant salary offers, and particularly weak demand for food are signs that Russia's post-overheating economy is now entering a stagnant or potentially recessionary phase, The Bell warns.