Russia's 1H26 trade surplus rises 14% to $73.4bn on Asian demand

Russia's 1H26 trade surplus rises 14% to $73.4bn on Asian demand
Exports climbed almost 12% to $219.5bn and imports 10.8% to $146.1bn, with Asia now accounting for 74.9% of Russia's total trade turnover, Federal Customs Service data show. / bne IntelliNews
By Ben Aris in Berlin August 17, 2026

Russia's foreign trade surplus grew 14% to $73.4bn in the first half of 2026, with Asia now taking three quarters of everything the country buys and sells abroad.

Exports rose almost 12% to $219.5bn and imports 10.8% to $146.1bn, lifting total turnover 11.4% to $365.6bn, the Federal Customs Service said in figures released on August 10.

Mineral products - overwhelmingly oil and gas - still pay for 55% of the export bill at $120.7bn, but they were the slowest-growing of the big categories, up 9.1%. Metals and metal products brought in $40.1bn, and food and agricultural raw materials $22.4bn, a rise of 25.9%. Machinery, equipment and vehicles made up $70.9bn of the import side, up 12.4%.

The shape of the surplus has changed more than its size. Exports to Asia rose 17.2% to $174.9bn while European exports fell 5.6% to $28bn. Russia now buys more from Europe than it sells there - imports from the continent rose 8.7% to $37.1bn - a goods deficit with the market that took most of its oil, gas and metals before sanctions redrew the map in 2022.

The customs count is not the only one. The Central Bank of Russia's balance-of-payments estimate puts the first-half goods surplus $8bn lower, at $65.4bn, though on that measure it is up 20% y/y, Kommersant reported on August 11. The regulator forecasts a $119bn surplus for the full year.

A recovery was what the market expected in April, when weak Urals prices had cut the January-February current account surplus to $2bn and brokers forecast a rebound on war-driven energy revenues. The windfall faded by June, and the money has not reached the Kremlin's accounts: the 1H26 federal deficit widened as oil and gas receipts lagged behind plan.

Volume, not price, is the risk to the second half. Ukrainian drone attacks have turned the Black Sea ports into the main front of the economic war: Russian grain exports fell 37.6% y/y in July alone, and seaborne petroleum product shipments dropped by about a third month on month.

The surplus is growing. The deficit it must cover is growing faster.

Data

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