Russia rejected a proposed truce in the air and repeated its demand that Ukraine leave Donbas when US envoys visited Moscow and Kyiv on September 5 and 6.

Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Vladimir Putin for more than three hours in Moscow, then flew to Kyiv the following day for talks with Volodymyr Zelenskiy alongside French, British and German representatives, who asked the US for a “winter package” of ammo, LNG and cash. The single tangible result was an agreement between Ukraine, the US and Russia to resume trilateral negotiations, the Kyiv Independent reported.

As Kyiv braces for a winter bombardment by Russia, Bankova will be disappointed that the talks stopped short of new proposals for peace. The de-escalation measures the US is exploring cover energy infrastructure, grain shipments, electricity facilities and oil and gas exports, Zelenskiy said. Both combatants’ missile and drone campaign has spent the summer destroying power and retail assets on both sides.

What the envoys took to Moscow

The US envoys arrived with revised versions of the earlier proposal 27-point peace plan (27PPP) floated in December, updated to reflect what has changed since talks stalled in February when the US war with Iran began. People familiar with the negotiations told the Kyiv Independent there were few fundamentally new ideas and that Washington was mainly trying to revive earlier proposals and narrow the gap.

One proposal was new: a truce in the air, either confined to energy infrastructure or halting aerial strikes altogether. Russia opposed it, according to reports.

Moscow's public position did not move. "The Russian army's successes were noted; confidence was expressed that the set objectives would be achieved," Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov told reporters after the meeting, before repeating the standard Kremlin formulation about eliminating all the “root causes” of the conflict. Russia continues to insist Ukraine withdraw from Donbas, which means surrendering territory its army has not taken.

Ukrainian MP Anna Skorokhod put it more sharply, saying the terms had hardened: "This was not a breakthrough. Previously, there was no requirement to amend the Constitution or recognise the territories, but now they have demanded it."

What was actually agreed in Kyiv

With no breakthrough to announce, the September 6 talks in Kyiv turned to winter. Air defence was the main issue, and Ukraine's shortage of Patriot interceptors, particularly PAC-3 missiles, the main constraint, because they are among the few weapons that can stop the ballistic missiles Russia now uses against the capital.

"If the war continues, and we expect the war will continue, we are counting heavily on the winter aid package, on support for both air defence and the energy sector," Zelenskiy told reporters, adding that the American side would increase production of anti-ballistic missiles. Ukraine has been scouring the world for interceptors for months, and asked the EU on September 5 to fund its first PAC-3 purchase out of the EUR90bn support loan.

Kyrylo Budanov, the presidential chief of staff, welcomed the delegation publicly. "Glad to welcome the American delegation headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Kyiv. Ahead lies an eventful day and important negotiations," he said. "Representatives of our European partners, France, Great Britain, and Germany, are also in Kyiv. Together, we are all working to achieve a just and lasting peace for Ukraine."

Why now, and why it failed

The timing was not accidental. Ukrainian and US intelligence increasingly believe Russia is preparing to escalate, possibly with a new mobilisation drive after September’s general election and another attempt to break Ukraine over the winter. One Ukrainian official characterised the envoys' message to Putin as: "Let's wrap this up; we'll lift the sanctions and move your assets somewhere before this goes any further," according to The Kyiv Independent.

The same official was blunt about why it did not work. "Putin still hopes to break us this winter and isn't willing to agree to anything." The envoys, both a Ukrainian and a US official said, "genuinely want" progress towards a ceasefire before winter.

Zelenskiy's own reading, given to Axios and published on September 7, rests on American domestic politics. Asked whether Putin might want to hand Trump a diplomatic win before November’s midterm elections, he replied: "Yeah." "My feeling is that Putin needs Trump," he said, adding that the Russian leader does not want to upset the US president. Budanov has suggested negotiations could gather pace in late September, days after Russia's parliamentary elections and weeks before the midterms.

Ceasefire over

Russia observed a three-day pause on strikes against Kyiv while the envoys were in the country. It ended within hours of their departure, with a combined ballistic, cruise and drone attack that killed two people and damaged warehouses, a business centre, a metro station and shops across seven districts of the capital.

The winter that both sides are planning around is the same one Ukraine has already survived twice. Last winter's strikes knocked out 9 GW of generating capacity nationwide and left thousands of Kyiv residents without reliable heat or power in temperatures as low as minus 25 Celsius. The campaign to freeze Ukraine into submission has been the shape of the last two heating seasons, and Zelenskiy's warning is that Putin may prefer to force capitulation through it rather than take a deal.

Set against the pattern of the past year, this week changed less than the diplomatic traffic suggests. The proposals that reached Kyiv in February were rejected then on much the same grounds, the channel between Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev has been carrying commercial as much as political traffic throughout, and the trip to Moscow and then Kyiv ended where the last one did. What is different is the calendar: two sets of elections, a heating season, and an air defence stockpile that will not stretch across all three.