Russian oil companies failed to fulfil about 60% of gasoline supply contracts on the St Petersburg exchange between May and September, industry sources told Kommersant on September 3 as a result of Ukraine’s sustained attacks on Russia’s oil refineries.

About 20% of the deals fell through entirely, ending in default or cancellation, and another 39% remain unfulfilled, of which 24% have run past the standard 30-day shipment window, the paper reported. Lukoil accounted for 46% of the unfulfilled contracts and Rosneft for 28%, and a source said Ukrainian drone attacks had hit those two companies' refineries hardest.

That is the clearest commercial measure yet of what Ukraine's summer campaign against Russian refineries has done inside Russia. The exchange is where independent filling stations buy, and vertically integrated oil companies are obliged by law to sell a share of their output there. When the barrels do not arrive, the shortage lands on forecourts rather than on the majors' balance sheets: the same source said companies had put state tasks first, supplying defence and industrial customers and leaving filling stations "on one of the last lines" of the list. Russia's second wave of fuel shortages began in August, with prices rising and queues returning as they had in June.

Novak concedes a gasoline deficit

Deputy prime minister Alexander Novak acknowledged part of the problem the same day, on the sidelines of the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok. "As I said earlier, the situation with diesel and jet fuel is stable right now. There are some fluctuations and shortages in gasoline," he told reporters, in comments carried by TASS.

The government still saw "a minor deficit at gas stations, especially in the regions of the Siberian and Ural Federal Districts", Novak said, calling it "purely a logistics issue". He said Russian oil production would decline slightly by the end of 2026, "partly due to the underutilization of refineries due to unscheduled maintenance", while exports stayed stable and export infrastructure was being used to its maximum.

Novak said Russia had the capacity to repair 100% of its refineries and was buying in gasoline from neighbouring states and from further afield. He also said grid and energy companies were working around the clock to protect large thermal power plants and major substations, which is the closest a Russian official has come this week to describing the second front in this war. A ban on Russian exports of diesel, marine fuel and gas oil runs to September 30.

Ukraine's General Staff said on September 2 that it had hit 12 refineries and two defence-industry plants during August, but no independent tally exists. However, it is consistent with a campaign that has moved from ports and grain terminals to the machinery of the domestic fuel market.

Sochi burns, Bashkortostan smokes

Ukraine kept the pressure on overnight on September 3. A fire broke out at an oil depot in the Adler district of Sochi after a drone attack, Sochi mayor Andrey Proshunin said on September 4, reporting no casualties and setting up a round-the-clock crisis centre. The Krasnodar Krai operational headquarters said drone debris had been found at various addresses and that on preliminary information nobody was hurt, The Moscow Times reported. Windows were broken in residential buildings in Sochi and in the Sirius federal territory.

Who owns the depot is not established. The Ukrainian monitoring channel Exilenova+ says it belongs to Rosneft; 24 Kanal and other Ukrainian outlets call it a Lukoil facility, and no Russian official has named an operator. No capacity, tonnage or throughput figure has been published by anyone, and Russian officials attribute the fire to falling debris rather than a direct hit.

Ukraine's Navy said it had struck the vessel Nefrit at Sochi sea port with naval drones and released video it said showed the aftermath, the Kyiv Independent reported. The navy describes the ship as supporting oil and gas operations, servicing offshore facilities and carrying cargo and personnel. Russia has not acknowledged the strike, there is no damage assessment, and the outlet said it could not independently verify the claim.

Far to the east, Radiy Khabirov, head of the Republic of Bashkortostan, confirmed a drone attack on Sterlitamak and said falling debris had started a fire on the premises of an enterprise he did not name. Ukrainian outlets and Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's Centre for Countering Disinformation, identified the target as the Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant, which makes ionol, an additive for aviation fuel and for lubricants used in military equipment, Ukrinform reported. The plant is more than 1,300 km from Ukraine, on the Kyiv Independent's figure; Ukrainian monitoring channels put it at more than 1,000 km, and no official on either side has stated a distance. The plant was also hit in November 2025 and in April 2026, so the range is a repeat rather than a record.

Russia's defence ministry claimed 490 drones were destroyed over 20 regions that night, which has not been independently verified.

A courier depot and a bottling plant

The heaviest commercial loss on the Ukrainian side was a Nova Poshta branch and depot in Dnipro, destroyed by a Banderol S8000 on the afternoon of September 3. A 27-year-old driver employed by the parcel company was killed and five staff were wounded by shrapnel, 24 Kanal reported.

Nova Poshta said it was still establishing how many shipments had been damaged, that customers would be compensated the declared value of destroyed parcels, and that it had switched to a backup logistics scheme to redirect flows and limit delays. It gave no parcel count, tonnage or value. The carrier's terminals and warehouses in Kyiv region, Sumy and Odesa have all been hit since August 28, which makes the postal network one of the most consistently targeted commercial assets in the country.

A day earlier a single drone struck the finished-goods warehouses at the Coca-Cola Beverages Ukraine plant at Velyka Dymerka in Brovary district, Ekonomichna Pravda reported. Local Telegram channels showed heavy smoke over the industrial area and preliminary information indicated no casualties. There was no official confirmation at the time of writing and no statement from the company.

The same district was hit again overnight. Brovary mayor Ihor Sapozhko said a fire had broken out at an industrial enterprise he did not name, with smoke drifting across the city and residents told to close their windows, and that debris from destroyed drones had started a warehouse fire that was quickly contained, LB.ua reported. He said there was no information on casualties. Warehouse premises at Sofiivska Borshchahivka, on the western edge of Kyiv, were also damaged, according to Oleksandr Medvid, acting head of the Borshchahivka village council.

Ukrainska Pravda also reported an attack on Naftogaz gas extraction facilities on September 3. The oblast, the weapon and the damage were not established and no ledger row has been opened for it.

In Dnipropetrovska oblast an enterprise and a supermarket were damaged in the Nikopol district and a logistics company building and vehicles in Dnipro, Oleksandr Hanzha, head of the oblast military administration, said on September 4. Two police officers were killed and a third hospitalised in a critical condition at the Bohdanivka hromada in the Pavlohrad district. Hanzha said two districts had been attacked more than 10 times with drones and artillery. Neither the supermarket chain nor the enterprise was named, and a gymnasium, apartment blocks and private homes were also damaged.

Odesa was struck again on the morning of September 4, with one person killed and at least three injured, residential buildings and cars damaged and an operational headquarters deployed to assist residents, Ukrinform reported. No port, energy or commercial asset is named in any account of that attack.

The grid mostly held. Ukrenergo reported power cuts in Kyiv, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia oblasts on September 3 and said emergency restoration work was continuing in Odesa oblast after the massed attack of September 2, with supply restored to all consumers there but temporary network restrictions applied to avoid overloading damaged equipment, Ekonomichna Pravda reported. The energy ministry said no scheduled restrictions were forecast for that day. By the following morning Ukrenergo was reporting consumers cut off in Odesa, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts, LB.ua reported, naming no facility and publishing no customer numbers.

No strike was reported anywhere in Ukraine on September 3 or 4 on a port, a grain terminal, an elevator, a grain-loading vessel or a rail freight asset, after a fortnight in which the ports and the grain trade were the story.

Retail was not spared, but only an unnamed Nikopol supermarket was hit: no strike on a named chain's warehouse or distribution centre was reported in either day.

Weapons and technology

Russia sent 121 drones and one Kh-31P guided anti-radar missile at Ukraine overnight, about half the drones jet-powered, Ukraine's Air Force Command said in figures covering 18:00 on September 3 to 09:30 on September 4, carried by UNN.

The mix included Shahed-type drones, Gerbera and Parodiya decoys and S8000 Banderol munitions, launched from Millerovo, Oryol, Kursk, Donetsk region and Hvardiiske in occupied Crimea. Air defence claimed 103 shot down or suppressed. Strikes were recorded at 15 locations and debris fell at six more. No interception result was published for the missile.

That is a smaller raid than the night before. On the night of September 1 to 2 the air force counted 174 strike drones, two Iskander-M and two Kh-59/69, claimed 141 targets neutralised and reported that none of the four missiles was intercepted, Interfax-Ukraine reported. None of these figures have been confirmed.

The drone propulsion remains the evolving story. Ukraine's military intelligence assesses that Russia now builds around 3,000 jet-powered Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones a month, and August was the first month in which jet models outnumbered piston-engined ones in production, the Kyiv Independent reported. The Geran-2 flies at about 185 kph, the Geran-4 at 500 kph and the Geran-5 at 600 kph. Ukraine was intercepting about 95% of piston Shaheds by May but that may have fallen to half for the newer and faster drones.

Total launch volumes have fallen as the mix has shifted, from a peak of 7,500 piston drones in a single month in May to under 6,000 in June, under 5,000 in July and under 2,500 in August, on figures cited by Colonel Yurii Ihnat of Air Force Command and Kyle Glen of the Centre for Information Resilience. Fewer drones, moving three times faster, is not an easier problem, and it is why the arithmetic of interception has turned against Kyiv.

Drones cost to kill ratio is falling

The economics of the new drones is also shifting. The newer drones are more expensive, but they are more effective too, which has reduced the cost to kill ratio in Russia’s advantage: it can do more damage while spending less money, even if the cost of individual drones has gone up, according to the defence analyst Michael Bohnert.

He puts the cost of a Geran-2 at about $35,000 a unit, which at a 10% leak rate through Ukrainian air defences costs Russia about $350,000 for every target actually hit.

He puts the Geran-4 at about $60,000, which at a 50% leak rate costs about $120,000 a hit and at a 30% leak rate still only about $200,000. On those assumptions the jet drone is two to three times more cost-effective than the piston one, and Ukraine would have to hold Geran-4 leakage below 20% before the two weapons looked comparable.

Bohnert cautions that the $50,000 to $70,000 band for the Geran-4 rests on a single air-defence source reported by The Economist and should be treated as directional rather than a bill of materials, noting that the Chinese microturbojet recovered from Geran-4 and Geran-5 wreckage has been priced closer to $35,000 to $40,000 on its own.

f the exchange rate holds, Bohnert argues, the Alabuga plant and the jet-engine line should move up the target list above ballistic missile final assembly, above oil except where oil funds the same plants, and well above consumer-logistics hits of the kind that have filled the ledger for a month. The industrial base that prints the cheap fast airframe, on that reading, is the scarce node, not the warehouses.

Ukraine’s interceptors

Ukraine is testing four candidate interceptors against the jet drones and has disclosed no success rates. Alexa Spatium, described as the first jet-powered Ukrainian interceptor, entered service on August 21, flies at 600 kph and is reusable; the Wild Hornets STING interceptor costs about $2,300. Defence Minister Yevhen Khmara said the task was "to bring these solutions to the required level as quickly as possible and scale up production to thousands of units", which is still on the drawing board.

Supply moved too. Serial production of more than 5,000 medium- and long-range drones for Ukraine has begun in Germany under a joint venture between the German-American firm Auterion and Ukraine's Airlogix, Handelsblatt reported on September 3. The German government order is put at about €300mn ($349mn) and is expected to be completed by mid-2027, with the main site in the greater Munich area and a second planned in eastern Germany. One of the two models is described as having a range of up to 1,500 km, and the drones are to carry artificial-intelligence systems intended to defeat Russian electronic warfare. The contract itself dates from April, when Auterion announced a German order for thousands of mid-range autonomous strike systems built entirely in Germany under Ukrainian export permissions; what is new is that the line has started running.

One small development on the verification side. The analyst Clement Molin noted that a Russian monitoring channel has begun mapping the tracks of Ukrainian drones and missiles into Russia, the mirror image of what Ukrainian channels have done with Russian strikes for three years, and that the maps show a low number of confirmed hits. That is a partisan source describing a partisan source, but the scarcity of confirmed hits is the same problem this ledger runs into every day.

Nothing else moved. There was no record salvo on either night, no first combat use of a new weapon type by either side, no Kinzhal, Zircon, Oreshnik, Flamingo, Neptune, Palianytsia or Ruta, and no new electronic warfare or autonomous-targeting reporting, on either September 3 or September 4. Russia's defence ministry published no shot-down total for the night of September 3 to 4 that this sweep could find.

Arson and sabotage in the EU

The third front runs through Europe's own industrial estates, and it had a busy week. Germany's formal attribution of the Leipzig drone attack to Russia on September 1 has now produced a retaliation cycle. Interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said the government concluded that Russia was responsible for the hybrid attack of August 4, in which a drone carrying explosives was found beside a Ukrainian Antonov Airlines cargo aircraft at Leipzig/Halle airport. President Vladimir Putin called the German findings a grave mistake and accused Berlin of falsifying evidence to distract from domestic problems, Defense News reported.

Foreign minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed the counter-move on September 3, on the margins of the Eastern Economic Forum. The Goethe-Institut centres in Moscow, St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg would close, he said: "Of course, they will be closed after our cultural center was kicked out," in remarks reported by The Moscow Times. Germany had ordered the Russian consulate-general in Bonn closed from September 18 and terminated the lease on the Russian House in Berlin, and has proposed further EU listings and more pressure on the shadow fleet that moves Russian oil, which is the economically material part of the package and is so far only proposed.

Poland lost two defence-industry sites in as many days, and the two cases sit at different levels of certainty. Storage rooms holding drone components burned at the WB Electronics plant at Skarzysko-Kamienna shortly after midnight on August 31, with closed-circuit television recording a masked figure climbing the perimeter fence and a backpack and sweatshirt recovered afterwards. Damage was put at at least PLN15mn (about €3.5mn), there were no injuries and there have been no arrests. The National Prosecutor's Office opened proceedings on two counts, foreign-intelligence activity and a terrorist offence.

Prime minister Donald Tusk said there was "no doubt that it was deliberate arson, an act of sabotage", and deputy interior ministry head Czeslaw Mroczek said a Russian trail was the obvious inference. Neither is an attribution: no charges have been filed and no Polish authority has formally concluded that Russia directed it. The day before, a 2,000 sq m facility at JFG Composites in Lublin, a subcontractor making composite aviation parts, was destroyed by a fire that took more than 40 firefighters seven hours to put out, with damage put at about PLN21mn (roughly €5mn). There, prosecutors are still weighing arson against a technical fault and spontaneous ignition, and nobody has been blamed at all, Brussels Signal reported.

Then Munich. A fire broke out overnight into September 3 at a construction site at the headquarters of Rohde and Schwarz, the defence-electronics maker whose radar systems detect and jam drones. It caused no significant damage before it was extinguished and nobody was injured. Two people were arrested at a nearby filling station, a 28-year-old woman and a 38-year-old man, both Bulgarian nationals, and police are investigating suspected arson. No German authority has attributed it to any state, and the nationality of the suspects is a fact about them and not an attribution.

The two German substation attacks of September 1 have hardened into criminal investigations without hardening into blame. Brandenburg police have opened a terrorism investigation over Turnow-Preilack, where a double-digit number of purpose-built devices was found and one 500 MW block at the Jaenschwalde lignite plant tripped off automatically. In North Rhine-Westphalia, where a short circuit at the Bergheim substation took five RWE generating blocks totalling 4,200 MW off the grid, police are examining whether the attack was directed by a foreign state or by left-wing extremists, The Local reported. Interior minister Herbert Reul said that "more sabotage, more hybrid attacks, interference like this is not happening far away, it's happening right on our doorstep", which is a characterisation of a pattern rather than a finding about these two attacks. Nobody has been arrested for either and nobody has claimed them.

Nothing new surfaced between September 1 and 4 on the Baltic seabed. No fresh undersea cable or pipeline incident was reported, no shadow-fleet tanker was detained, no railway sabotage was reported in Poland, the Baltic states, Romania or the Nordics, no incendiary device was found in the parcel or air-cargo network, and no European airport was closed by a drone incursion. The satellite-navigation jamming that runs underneath all of it produced no new dated incident in the period either. In a week that otherwise looked like escalation, that is worth putting on the record.

Major strikes and targets

Date	Target	Weapon	Region	Damage
3 Jun	St Petersburg oil terminal	Drones	Leningrad region	Hit on the opening day of Russia's SPIEF investment forum
7 Jul	Omsk refinery	Drones	Omsk	Largest refinery hit to that point and the deepest strike into Russia
16 Jul	Salavat refinery	Drones	Bashkortostan	Key units hit; about 3% of national refining capacity
18 Jul	Wildberries warehouse	Drones	Tambov region	Seven killed; opens the campaign against retail and logistics
4 Aug	Wildberries hubs near Moscow and St Petersburg; a refinery	Drones	Russia	Warehouses hit; refinery ablaze
7 Aug	Wildberries warehouse, Yekaterinburg	Drones	Sverdlovsk region	2,000 km from the border
12 Aug	Novorossiysk Grain Plant terminal	Drones	Krasnodar Krai	Loading equipment damaged; company puts repairs at one to four months
14 Aug	Last working Novorossiysk grain terminal	Drones	Krasnodar Krai	All three of the port's grain terminals out of service
17-18 Aug	Five bulk carriers	Sea and aerial drones	Novorossiysk and Tuapse	First large-scale strikes on ships carrying grain
19-25 Aug	Refineries at Ufa, Nizhnekamsk, Perm, Novokuybyshevsk, Afipsky and Novoshakhtinsk	Drones	Russia	Perm and Novoshakhtinsk suspended processing
22-24 Aug	Ozon warehouses at Chapayevsk (Samara), Orenburg, Makhachkala (Dagestan), Enem and Adygeysk (Adygea), Nevinnomyssk (Stavropol)	Drones	Samara, Orenburg, Dagestan, Adygea, Stavropol	Four warehouses hit and set ablaze, with injuries at Chapayevsk and Makhachkala; operations suspended. Adygeysk and Nevinnomyssk evacuated on a drone threat but undamaged. Ozon shares fell 28%
24 Aug	Astrakhan gas processing plant; Kamensky Combine	Drones	Astrakhan and Rostov regions	Two gas separation units hit
25-26 Aug	Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez, Kstovo	Drones	Nizhny Novgorod region	Crude processing suspended; every major Lukoil refinery in Russia now offline
26 Aug	Wildberries logistics centre, Kotovsk	Drones	Tambov region	Three of 19 drones got through; more than 100,000 sq m burned, complex destroyed, two injured
27 Aug	Ozon logistics centres at Ufa (Bashkortostan) and Orenburg	Drones	Bashkortostan and Orenburg region	Ufa warehouse suffered minor damage and closed for inspection; Orenburg facility evacuated on a drone threat and resumed work soon after
27 Aug	Bashkir Soda Company, Sterlitamak	Drones	Bashkortostan	Smoke over the industrial zone; target identified by open-source analysts, not confirmed officially
27-28 Aug	Shchastia thermal power station	Drones	Occupied Luhansk	Fire at the plant; blackout across occupied Luhansk and Donetsk, restoration time not given
28 Aug	Slavneft-YANOS refinery, Yaroslavl	FP-1 drones	Yaroslavl region	Three quarters of capacity halted: the AVT-3 and AVT-4 primary units, 40% and 33% of the plant, stopped and only AT-4 still running. Eighth strike on the plant this year
28 Aug	Magnit hypermarket, Pavlovsky Posad	Drone	Moscow region	Store hit; 46 windows shattered in the adjacent clinic; no casualties; first reported strike on one of the chain's hypermarkets
28 Aug	Power transmission line	Drones	Voronezh region	Two villages and a farmstead cut off
26-28 Aug	21 substations and gas distribution stations in occupied territory	Drones	Occupied Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Crimea	Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces claim; no damage detail and no Russian confirmation
29 Aug	Ozon logistics facility	Drones	Rostov region	Small fire extinguished; operations suspended for inspection, per the company; site placed at Aksay by some accounts and Rostov-on-Don by others
29 Aug	DNS warehouse, Aksay	Drones	Rostov region	Reported ablaze by open-source channels; the governor confirmed only drone debris on the site
29 Aug	Chizhik supermarket warehouse, Leninskoye	Drones	Rostov region	Reported struck by a single Telegram channel; no official confirmation
29-30 Aug	Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, Kirishi	Drones	Leningrad region	Disputed. Ukraine's General Staff says the plant was struck and damage is being assessed; the governor says a downed drone fell near it and started a fire that was extinguished. No independent assessment; about 790 km from the border
30 Aug	Belgorod combined heat and power plant	Not established	Belgorod region	Fires on eyewitness footage circulated by a local Telegram channel; TV broadcast disruption reported; no Russian official confirmation of damage and no outage figures
30 Aug	Estate Logistics warehouse used by Ozon, Belgorod	Not established	Belgorod region	Warehouse hit and burning; Ozon confirmed the strike and halted deliveries in the city; acting governor reported two killed and 16 injured at commercial facilities
30 Aug	PEK transport company facility and an industrial-zone site, Belgorod	Not established	Belgorod region	Fires reported from eyewitness footage circulated by one Telegram channel; no damage assessment and no official confirmation
31 Aug	Logistics centre identified by monitoring channels as a Wildberries hub, Yekaterinburg	Drones	Sverdlovsk region	Operator says the facility was not damaged and staff were evacuated; debris damaged three apartment blocks and four were injured; over 1,600 km from the border
1 Sep	Novatek-Ust-Luga complex, Ust-Luga port	Drones	Leningrad region	Ukraine's Defence Intelligence says key components of an oil-processing unit and other technological equipment were damaged and a large fire broke out; governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed damage at the port and a fire, since extinguished, with no casualties, and did not name Novatek. Drone counts over the region differ between accounts
2-3 Sep	Factory, operator and sector not identified, Bolshoye Bunkovo	Drone	Moscow region	Governor Andrei Vorobyov says a drone strike started a fire at a factory and did not name it; TASS describes a drone crashing on factory grounds rather than a direct hit. No damage assessment
3 Sep	Sochi sea port	Drones	Krasnodar Krai	Fire in footage published by monitoring channels; damage, consequences and casualties still being clarified. Neither the Krasnodar governor nor the mayor of Sochi has commented. Rosaviatsiya restricted arrivals and departures at Sochi and Gelendzhik airports
3-4 Sep	Oil depot, Adler district, Sochi	Drones	Krasnodar Krai	Sochi mayor Andrey Proshunin confirmed a fire at the oil storage facility, reported no casualties and set up a round-the-clock crisis centre; the Krasnodar Krai operational headquarters said drone debris was found at various addresses and that on preliminary information nobody was hurt. Ownership is disputed, with Ukrainian monitoring channels naming Rosneft and Ukrainian outlets naming Lukoil, and no Russian official naming an operator. No capacity or throughput figure published
3-4 Sep	Vessel Nefrit, Sochi sea port	Naval drone	Krasnodar Krai	Ukraine's Navy published video it says shows the aftermath of a strike on the vessel, which it describes as servicing offshore oil and gas facilities and carrying cargo and personnel. No Russian acknowledgement and no damage assessment. May be the same event as the 3 Sep Sochi sea port row
3-4 Sep	Sterlitamak Petrochemical Plant	Drones	Bashkortostan	Radiy Khabirov, head of Bashkortostan, confirmed a drone attack and said debris started a fire on the enterprise's premises, without naming the facility. The plant makes ionol, an additive for aviation fuel and for lubricants used in military equipment. More than 1,300 km from Ukraine. Damage extent not established

Strikes on economic infrastructure in Russia and Russian-occupied territory since 1 June 2026. Compiled from publicly available sources, including our own reporting and the Centre for Eastern Studies' war reports. Dates are of the strike where known and of first report otherwise; the list is of significant strikes on economic targets and is not exhaustive.

Date	Target	Weapon	Region	Damage
15 Jun	Odesa ports	Missiles and drones	Odesa	Export infrastructure damaged; first sustained pressure on the sea corridor
6 Jul	Crimean power grid	Drones	Occupied Crimea	Peninsula-wide blackout
14 Jul	Togo-flagged merchant ship, Odesa port	Missile	Odesa	Three crew killed
19 Jul	Kyiv and other cities	Missiles and drones	Ukraine	Largest bombardment of the war to that date, in response to the Tambov strike
27 Jul	Drone-industry exhibition	Missiles	Kyiv region	At least 10 killed
31 Jul	US-owned drone factory	Missile	Ukraine	Plant destroyed
5 Aug	Kyiv	24 ballistic missiles	Kyiv	Air defences unable to respond; interceptor stocks reported near exhaustion
18 Aug	Kryvyi Rih thermal power station	Drones	Dnipropetrovska oblast	Damaged beyond the ability to generate
20 Aug	Antonov aircraft plants; drone and cruise missile component sites; three retail chains' warehouses	About 75 missiles, 23 ballistic or hypersonic	Kyiv	18 killed, 42 injured, 90,000 customers cut off; no ballistic missile intercepted
21 Aug	Largest shopping centre in Kryvyi Rih	Drone	Dnipropetrovska oblast	16 killed, 140 injured, three missing
22 Aug	Ukrzaliznytsia rail depots and repair works, Darnytskyi district	11-13 ballistic missiles	Kyiv	Extensive fires; air defences inactive
22-25 Aug	DTEK energy assets; Odesa and Chornomorsk ports; Rozdilna rail junction; two Epicentr stores; fuel depots	Missiles and drones	Odesa region	Six ships damaged in Greater Odesa between 18 and 24 August
25-26 Aug	Power distribution across five regions	162 Shahed-type drones, some jet-powered	Kharkiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia	Consumers cut off in five regions; Ukrenergo published no numbers
26-27 Aug	Kherson combined heat and power plant	Five guided bombs over two nights	Kherson	All remaining heat and power generating equipment destroyed weeks before the heating season
27 Aug	Odesa port infrastructure and a grain elevator	Missiles and drones	Odesa	Seven-hour attack; elevator and port damaged, three injured; trains delayed more than 17 hours
27 Aug	Warehouses and distribution centres of Roshen, Comfy, Avrora, Budynok Ihrashok, Fora, KOLO and Epicentr	258 drones, two Oniks and Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles	Kyiv region	Roshen, Avrora and Budynok Ihrashok centres destroyed; third strike on Fora logistics in August
27 Aug	Industrial plants and an energy facility, Kremenchuk and Myrhorod districts	Drones	Poltava	Seven settlements cut off
28 Aug	Nova Poshta warehouse at Sviatopetrivske and terminal in Sumy	Drones; four guided bombs at Sumy	Kyiv region and Sumy	Warehouse struck twice more while crews fought the fire; Sumy terminal hit and three lorries damaged; a Kyiv region sorting centre destroyed
27 Aug	Zaporizhstal steelworks	Five ballistic missiles	Zaporizhzhia	Blast furnace shop, power and transport infrastructure hit; plant already halted since the 11 August strike that killed eight
27 Aug	Cargo ship Progress IV, out of Reni with sugar and peas	Reported drone strike, unattributed	Black Sea, Romania's economic zone	Caught fire and sank; all 12 crew rescued; Romania has opened a criminal investigation and named nobody
28 Aug	Fozzy hypermarket and production facilities, Vyshneve	Drones	Kyiv region	Operations halted, scale of damage being assessed; no casualties
28 Aug	Epicentr hypermarket, Zaporizhzhia	Drone	Zaporizhzhia	Fire over about 2,000 sq m; four injured; the chain's last operating store in the city
28 Aug	Hypermarket, Pavlohrad	Not stated	Dnipropetrovsk	Store burned; a 17-year-old killed and seven injured; the chain was not named by officials
28 Aug	Petrol station, Kharkiv	Geran-4 drone	Kharkiv	Fuel dispensers and operator's building burned; one woman killed and four men injured
28 Aug	14 warehouse premises across five districts, including a book warehouse at Sviatopetrivske	Shahed-type drones	Kyiv region	Publishing stock destroyed; Readeat suspended shipments
28 Aug	Warehouses of a private company, Myla	Drones	Kyiv region	Prolonged detonations; M-06 highway closed over 17 km; more than 200 evacuated; prosecutors opened an inquiry into the storage of explosive materials
28 Aug	Cargo lorries	Drones	Zhytomyr	Four lorries and three semi-trailers burned
28 Aug	Power facilities in four regions	Not stated	Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and Kyiv	Consumers cut off; Ukrenergo published no numbers
29 Aug	Lorries carrying grain, Safianivka	Shahed drones	Odesa, Izmail district	Five lorries destroyed and three damaged; about 125 tonnes of grain damaged; one killed and three injured
29 Aug	Energy infrastructure, Mykolaiv city and two districts	Shahed-136 drones, Banderol cruise missiles, one Iskander-M	Mykolaiv	More than 300,000 consumers cut off; trams and trolleybuses suspended
29 Aug	Supermarket and a warehouse, Mykolaiv	Drones	Mykolaiv	Both caught fire; no casualties reported
29 Aug	Warehouse at Zolochiv, enterprises at Chuhuiv and Liubotyn, power lines at Chervona Poliana and Cherkaska Lozova, a shopping centre and two petrol stations	Four missiles, guided bombs, 11 Molniya drones, one FPV and 83 unidentified drones	Kharkiv	Cherkaska Lozova cut off; two killed and 11 injured across the region
29 Aug	A shop, a gas pipeline and a mobile phone tower	Not stated	Kherson	34 settlements struck; one killed and 26 wounded
29 Aug	Logistics company building, Pavlohrad	Not stated	Dnipropetrovsk	Building destroyed; two wounded
28-29 Aug	Ukrposhta delivery lorry, near Kramatorsk	Drone	Donetsk oblast	Vehicle destroyed with about 500 parcels aboard; date placed by ISW and not independently confirmed
29-30 Aug	Black Sea port infrastructure	Banderol S8000 jet loitering munitions	Odesa	Cargo operations prevented; vessel calls down from seven or eight ships a day to one, per the Ukrainian Ports Association
30 Aug	Food storage warehouses, operator not named	Not stated	Odesa	Damaged; fire covering roughly 3,000 sq m
30 Aug	Food-processing facility, a warehouse, port infrastructure and energy sites, operators not named	Not stated	Mykolaiv	Struck; single-sourced and no damage detail given
30-31 Aug	Nova Poshta terminal	One Kh-59 and 121 Shahed-type drones across the attack	Odesa	Terminal building partially destroyed; fire later extinguished; no casualties
31 Aug	Warehouse holding goods of the Varus supermarket chain, Boryspil	Not stated	Kyiv region	A large amount of goods damaged and destroyed, per the company; all 119 stores stayed open; deliveries may be delayed and some items temporarily unavailable
31 Aug	Distribution centre of the Avrora chain	Not stated	Kyiv region	Completely destroyed, per the co-owner; no employees injured; second Avrora centre lost in five days
31 Aug	Unspecified infrastructure, Odesa city	Shahed and Banderol drones and guided aerial bombs	Odesa	Infrastructure damaged, details being clarified by the regional administration; electricity supply disrupted across the city
1 Sep	Ukrzaliznytsia depot and railway facilities, Kyiv	Ballistic missiles	Kyiv	Six Ukrainian Railways employees killed and one hospitalised; a workshop destroyed and multiple fires; train traffic halted on two sections and later reopened. 12 killed and 21 injured across Kyiv and the oblast overnight
1 Sep	Port export infrastructure at Odesa and Chornomorsk, the Orlivka ferry crossing on the Romanian border, energy infrastructure and a sewing workshop	At least ten Banderol S8000, plus Shahed drones and guided aerial bombs	Odesa	Orlivka took direct hits and operations are fully suspended; it handles up to 1,200 vehicles a day. Temporary blackouts in some areas; major fire at the workshop; two residential buildings damaged and one injured
31 Aug	DTEK Energy coal mine	Drone	Dnipropetrovsk	A worker injured, per the company; no damage figures given
1 Sep	Nova Poshta terminal, Odesa	Not stated	Odesa	Fire inside the building, extinguished by the State Emergency Service; no casualties at the site; the terminal had been damaged in earlier strikes
1 Sep	Three warehouse facilities, Bucha district	Not stated	Kyiv region	Fires and structural damage at all three, all extinguished; the State Emergency Service says two further strikes were made on the warehouses while crews worked; owners and contents not identified
1 Sep	A supermarket and stores across the Nikopol, Pavlohrad and Synelnykivsky districts	Aerial bombs and drones	Dnipropetrovsk	Supermarket destroyed and stores damaged in more than 20 attacks from the evening, per the regional military administration; no chain named
1-2 Sep	Port infrastructure, energy infrastructure, the Orlivka ferry crossing and a Nova Poshta terminal, Odesa	Ballistic weapons, guided aerial bombs and Banderol munitions	Odesa	Infrastructure damaged and electricity disrupted; eight injured including one child and two hospitalised; a 24-storey residential building, office buildings and two educational institutions also hit
2 Sep	Industrial facility, operator not named	Jet-powered drones	Poltava	Damage not specified; no casualties; emergency service units deployed
2 Sep	Backbone energy facilities, Odesa region	Massed missile and drone attack	Odesa	More than 350,000 families cut off, of which 177,000 restored at the time of reporting, per DTEK Odesa Grids. Electric public transport stopped and water supply failed in the Peresyp district. Ukrenergo says supply was restored to all Odesa region consumers by the morning of 3 September, with grid restrictions still applied to avoid overloading damaged equipment
2 Sep	DTEK industrial site and a Ukrnafta filling station	Massed missile and drone attack	Odesa	Transport vehicles and office buildings damaged at the DTEK site; structures destroyed and equipment significantly damaged at the filling station
2 Sep	Energy facilities, operators not named	Not stated	Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Kherson	Consumers cut off in the four regions, per the energy ministry; no figures published
3 Sep	Biokon pharmaceutical logistics complex, Boryspil district	Drones	Kyiv region	Warehouse premises, an administrative building and a shop damaged, with a large fire; one man hospitalised with shrapnel wounds. Described by nv.ua as one of the largest specialised pharmaceutical warehouses in the country
3 Sep	Two enterprises, operators not named, Khmelnytskyi district	Drone debris	Khmelnytskyi	A cargo lorry burned over roughly 40 sq m and its driver was injured; a separate warehouse fire covered roughly 200 sq m
3 Sep	Coca-Cola Beverages Ukraine plant, Velyka Dymerka, Brovary district	One drone	Kyiv region	One drone struck the finished-goods warehouses, per Ekonomichna Pravda citing Ukrainska Pravda; local Telegram channels showed significant smoke over the industrial area; preliminary information indicates no casualties. No official confirmation and no company statement at the time of writing
3 Sep	Nova Poshta branch and depot, Dnipro	Banderol S8000	Dnipropetrovska oblast	Branch and depot destroyed; a 27-year-old driver employed by the company killed and five employees wounded by shrapnel of varying severity. The company says it is still establishing the exact number of damaged shipments, will compensate the declared value of destroyed parcels and has switched to a backup logistics scheme
3-4 Sep	Warehouse premises, Sofiivska Borshchahivka	Drones	Kyiv region	Warehouse premises damaged, per Oleksandr Medvid, acting head of the Borshchahivka village council; no casualties reported and no floor area, stock or value figure given
3-4 Sep	Industrial enterprise and warehouses, Brovary	Drones and drone debris	Kyiv region	Fire at an unnamed industrial enterprise with smoke over the city and residents told to close their windows; a separate warehouse fire started by debris from destroyed drones was quickly contained. Brovary mayor Ihor Sapozhko says there is no information on casualties
4 Sep	An enterprise and a supermarket, Nikopol district; a logistics company building and vehicles, Dnipro	Drones and artillery	Dnipropetrovska oblast	Damage confirmed by Oleksandr Hanzha, head of the oblast military administration, who says two districts were attacked more than 10 times. Two police officers were killed and one hospitalised in a critical condition at the Bohdanivka hromada in Pavlohrad district. A gymnasium, apartment blocks and private homes were also damaged. Neither the supermarket chain nor the enterprise was named

Strikes on economic infrastructure in Ukraine since 1 June 2026. Compiled from publicly available sources, including our own reporting and the Centre for Eastern Studies' war reports. Dates are of the strike where known and of first report otherwise; the list is of significant strikes on economic targets and is not exhaustive.

Date	Target	Method	Country	Damage and attribution
4-5 Aug	Ukrainian Antonov Airlines cargo aircraft, Leipzig/Halle airport	Drone carrying explosives	Germany	Detonator failed; device defused by a robot; airport briefly closed. Two further drones found near the airport on 14 and 25 August. Germany's interior minister Alexander Dobrindt formally attributed the attack to Russia on 1 September: "The Federal Government therefore concludes that Russia is responsible for the hybrid attack in Leipzig on August 4." Putin calls the findings a grave mistake and says Germany falsified evidence
10 Aug	EMCO ammunition plant, Belitsa	Fire and explosions, cause not established	Bulgaria	Ammunition storage building hit; workers evacuated, no casualties; partial state of disaster declared within 500 m. Nobody blamed; all possible causes under investigation and the company rules out human error
13 Aug	KNDS Ammo Italy plant, Colleferro	Fire in the powder-pressing area followed by an explosion	Italy	All 24 workers accounted for. Defence minister Guido Crosetto says the government has seen nothing to suggest Russian involvement
16-17 Aug	Building used by Milrem Robotics, Tallinn	Arson	Estonia	Deliberate and premeditated, per the state prosecutor; three Latvian citizens detained in Latvia. The company says deliveries to Ukraine were not disrupted
21 Aug	Concealed weapons cache, Brandenburg forest near Berlin	Prepared arms depot	Germany	Two live firearms found. The domestic intelligence service assesses it a Russian dead letterbox left for agents tasked with kinetic operations. No arrests
30 Aug	JFG Composites, Lublin	Fire, cause not established	Poland	A 2,000 sq m facility destroyed; more than 40 firefighters over seven hours; no injuries; damage put at about PLN21mn. The subcontractor makes composite aviation parts for PZL-Swidnik. Prosecutors are examining arson, technical fault and spontaneous ignition. Nobody blamed and no suspects identified
31 Aug	WB Electronics drone-components plant, Skarzysko-Kamienna	Suspected arson	Poland	Storage rooms holding drone components burned; CCTV recorded a masked person climbing the perimeter fence, and a backpack and sweatshirt were recovered; damage put at at least PLN15mn; no injuries and no arrests. The National Prosecutor's Office opened proceedings on foreign-intelligence activity and a terrorist offence. Prime minister Donald Tusk says there is no doubt it was deliberate arson and an act of sabotage; deputy interior ministry head Czeslaw Mroczek says a Russian trail is the obvious inference. No charges and no formal attribution
1 Sep	Turnow-Preilack substation linking the Jaenschwalde power plant to the 50Hertz grid	Purpose-built rockets carrying conductive material	Germany	Two short circuits; a double-digit number of devices found, several unfired; one 500 MW block at Jaenschwalde shut down automatically and was due back the same evening; general supply never affected. Nobody blamed; the interior minister rules out neither foreign powers nor left-wing militants. Brandenburg police have opened a terrorism investigation
1 Sep	Bergheim substation on the Amprion grid, near Cologne	Not established	Germany	Short circuit took several lines out; RWE says five blocks totalling 4,200 MW came off the grid, of which about 3,000 MW was being fed in at the time; no power cuts. Police say they are not assuming a technical failure. North Rhine-Westphalia police are investigating whether the attack was directed by a foreign state or by left-wing extremists. Nobody blamed
3 Sep	Rohde and Schwarz headquarters, Munich	Suspected arson at a construction site	Germany	Fire caused no significant damage before it was extinguished and nobody was injured; the company confirmed only a police and fire brigade operation near its premises. A 28-year-old woman and a 38-year-old man, both Bulgarian nationals, were arrested at a nearby filling station. Police are investigating suspected arson. No attribution to any state, and German authorities rule out neither foreign involvement nor left-wing extremists. The company makes radar systems for detecting and jamming drones

Arson, sabotage and drone incidents in the EU connected to the war in Ukraine since 1 August 2026. Attribution is given only where a named official or agency has made one, and in most of these cases nobody has. Compiled from publicly available sources; the list is not exhaustive.

Tit for tat

The two campaigns have stopped mirroring each other. Ukraine is working through the plants that make and move Russian fuel, and the result is now legible as a commercial statistic, contracts that go unfilled on an exchange, rather than as a fire on a Telegram video. Russia is working through the things that move Ukrainian goods and keep Ukrainian lights on: a parcel network, a bottling plant, a row of warehouses on the edge of Kyiv, an oblast grid.

What the two ledgers share is that the damage is cumulative and slow to surface. A refinery down for unscheduled maintenance and a courier depot rebuilt at the declared value of its parcels both take months to read across into national figures, which is why the targeting of each other's civilian economy has outlasted every attempt to talk about it as a phase. September has opened with each side chipping at the other's ability to deliver, in the most literal sense of the word.

The third ledger is the one to watch, because it is the one where the pattern is least settled. Ten incidents at European plants, substations and airports since the start of August, and exactly one of them has a government willing to put Russia's name to it. Poland has a prime minister calling arson sabotage while his prosecutors have charged nobody. Germany has police weighing a foreign state against domestic militants at two substations in the same week it expelled a consulate over a drone. Whatever is happening on those industrial estates, the evidentiary standard for saying so out loud has not caught up with the suspicion.