Russian and Ukrainian delegations met in Istanbul for the second direct ceasefire talks on June 1 that made little progress in laying out the groundwork for the mooted 30-day ceasefire suggested by the Trump administration in March.
While the Ukrainian delegation laid out their 22-point conditions for a standstill well in advance, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov did not release his updated memo listing Russia’s conditions until the day of the meeting, presenting them to the Ukraine delegation as a fait accompli.
Ukraine’s Defence Minister Rustam Umerov complained after the meeting that the Russian approach was unreasonable as the Ukrainian side could not prepare a coordinated response to the demands in advance.
Russian state-owned newswire has released a copy of the list which has not changed much from previous announcements and is little more than demand for Ukraine’s capitulation as the Bankova has made it clear that many of the terms on the list are red lines to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The two hour meeting in Istanbul broke up, having made little progress. The Ukrainian delegation presented the Russian side with a list of 400 children that should be returned, from a total of 20,000 children Kyiv claim have been abducted since the start of the war and are the basis for an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The parties also agreed to another POW swap following the 1,000 each that was agreed at the previous Istanbul meeting on May 16 and carried out shortly afterwards.
The Ukrainian delegation demanded that Russia implement the month-long ceasefire immediately. The Russian side responded with an offer for a 2-3 day ceasefire on certain parts of the frontline so each side could collect its dead.
“As for the ceasefire, they basically don’t see it happening yet. According to the Russians, they’re ready for a 2–3 day ceasefire just to collect their dead from the battlefield. I think — idiots, because the whole point of a ceasefire is to stop people from becoming dead in the first place. So, you see the mindset. For them, it’s just a short pause in the war,” Zelenskiy said in a post on social media.
The most difficult point demanded by the Kremlin delegation was that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) should quit and hand over those parts of the four regions annexed by Russia in 2023, despite the fact that the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) do not control all of any of those regions.
Amongst the other demands, the proposal would, in effect, require Ukraine to give up sovereignty over those occupied regions, abandon Nato ambitions and return to neutrality, drastically reduce its military capabilities, halt Western military support, and reorient its internal laws to make Russian an official language again and ensure the rights of ethnic Russians living in Ukraine.
Terms of the ceasefire
The second part of the Russian deal is new and called "Terms of the Ceasefire": until now, Russia has never set out a plan that would allow for a truce until the "final settlement". Moreover, the document contains two alternative ceasefire scenarios, The Bell reports.
The first scenario consists of one phrase and is obviously unacceptable for Ukraine, since it repeats the main maximalist demand for the surrender of all four regions claimed by Russia: "The beginning of the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other paramilitary formations of Ukraine from the territory of the Russian Federation, including the DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia and Kherson regions, and their withdrawal to a distance agreed upon by the Parties from the borders of the Russian Federation."
The second scenario is called the "Package Proposal" and is more complex. It is a package of 10 more realistic, although still difficult for Ukraine, points: cessation of movement and mobilization of troops; cessation of supplies of foreign weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine and provision of intelligence; exclusion of foreign military presence on the territory of Ukraine; guarantees of Ukraine's renunciation of sabotage on the territory of Russia; mutual amnesty for political prisoners; lifting martial law in Ukraine and calling presidential elections no later than 100 days from now.
The last condition, however, is the signing of an agreement with the points from the first section (“final maximalist settlement”).
Finally, the third part of the memorandum describes the sequence of actions. First, negotiations on a final peace treaty must begin. Then, a memorandum on a ceasefire must be signed with specific dates for the implementation of all actions and the signing of a peace treaty.
Within 30 days after the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops and the ceasefire, Ukraine must fulfill all 10 points of the “package agreement”.
After that, elections must be held in the country, and the new government will sign the final peace treaty.
The full text of the demands is below:
1. Territorial Concessions
2. Neutrality and Demilitarisation of Ukraine
3. Political and Social Restrictions
4. Sanctions and Economic Policy
5. Ceasefire Options
6. Political Process