Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk will seek a vote of confidence in his government on June 11, following the narrow defeat of his presidential candidate Rafał Trzaskowski in the June 1 run-off election.

Trzaskowski, the liberal mayor of Warsaw, was backed by Tusk’s ruling alliance but lost to the conservative historian Karol Nawrocki, who was supported by the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party. 

Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote against Trzaskowski’s 49.11% – a difference of just under 370,000 votes, highlighting Poland’s political divisions running deep.

Nawrocki’s win is widely seen as a blow to the governing camp’s legislative ambitions. Tusk’s majority in the parliament is short of votes to override presidential vetoes, which Nawrocki is expected to wield against key reforms of the government.

“This government was elected to bring change, and that is what we will continue to do,” Tusk said in a televised address. He added that his cabinet would “govern and make decisions regardless of obstacles,” including a potentially hostile president.

Tusk has just over two years to deliver or he will face defeat in the next general election in 2027.

He is also under duress even from within. Officials from parties making up the ruling coalition have come up with harsh criticism of the PM, highlighting mistakes in Trzaskowski’s campaign, which Tusk had joined in the final stretch despite being a divisive figure in Polish politics. 

The vote of confidence will be the first formal test of support for Tusk’s administration since it took office in December 2023. It is expected to be risk-free for Tusk despite internal discontent within the coalition.

The coalition comprises four parties ranging from centre-right to left-wing. While it holds a majority in Parliament, internal divisions – especially on social issues – are seen as a contributing factor to Trzaskowski’s defeat. The mayor is not in the government but, seen as very close to it, was linked to its lack of agency.

The government carried out hardly any reforms it had pledged in the 2023 campaign, blaming incumbent President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, for obstruction. 

Critics have pointed out, however, that on issue like relaxing Poland’s strict abortion regulations, the coalition was unable to forge a compromise to present legislation for Duda to reject it, which could offer a convenient point of criticism of the president and the entire PiS camp.

Meanwhile, PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński has proposed replacing Tusk’s cabinet with a technocratic administration, a move calculated to weaken the coalition by addressing coalition MPs who might have second thoughts about continuing with the unpopular administration.