Months of high-profile protests and road blockades in Serbia have had only a marginal effect on the country’s foreign tourism, data cited by the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) shows, despite government assertions that political unrest is undermining the economy.

According to the central bank, total tourist traffic in the first quarter of 2025 declined, but the fall in foreign arrivals was negligible — just 0.2% lower year on year. The impact was more pronounced in domestic tourism, which saw a 3.7% drop in arrivals and an 8.4% decline in overnight stays.

While the NBS and the government have blamed student-led protests for scaring off both tourists and investors, broader economic headwinds may be more to blame. The ongoing cost-of-living crisis and high inflation have likely weighed on domestic travel demand.

Still, Serbia’s broader economic indicators paint a troubling picture. The economy expanded just 2% year on year in the first quarter, a steep decline from 3.9% in 2024. The downturn was driven by weakening exports to Western markets, a sharp reduction in both public and private investment and a significant slowdown in foreign capital inflows.

Foreign direct investment dropped by half compared to the first quarter of 2024, contributing to the overall economic deceleration. Public investment, which had previously cushioned the economy against falling exports, also unexpectedly declined. Government capital expenditures fell by 3.7% in nominal terms, or 7.8% when adjusted for inflation, despite expectations of a boost linked to Expo 2027 infrastructure projects.

President Aleksandar Vucic has repeatedly linked the economic downturn to political instability, saying student protests have scared away investors and tourists. However, official data suggests that foreign tourism has proven more resilient than expected and that other factors may be to blame for the country's slowing growth rate.