Romania’s far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) continues to lead by a wide margin in voter preferences, according to an INSCOP Research survey published on September 10 (chart). The poll, conducted between September 1 and 9 for Informat.ro, placed AUR at 40.8% support, up slightly from 40.5% in June and 38.1% in May.

In parliament, the ruling coalition currently holds a robust 63% majority. However, the survey, which carries a margin of error of +/-2.95% for 95% confidence, highlights a narrowing balance of support between the governing coalition and the opposition, composed of AUR and fellow far-right parties. 

The largest party in the parliament and the ruling coalition, the Social Democratic Party (PSD), registered 17.9%, up from 13.7% in June and 17.4% in May. Two other members of the ruling coalition followed, albeit with reduced scores; support for the National Liberal Party (PNL) fell to 15.2% from 17.3% in June, while Union Save Romania (USR) was on 12.8%, compared with 13.1% in June and 12.2% in May.

Taken together, the four government coalition parties — the PSD, PNL, USR and the Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) — hold almost 50% of voter support. Opposition parties, including AUR, the Party of Youth (POT) and SOS Romania, collectively reached about 47%.

Remus Ștefureac, director of INSCOP Research, said the latest results mark the first measurement after the summer recess. “The data shows the consolidation of the voting intention for AUR around the 40% threshold,” Ștefureac noted. He added that the poll also reflects “a slight increase in the voting intention for PSD, a slight decrease in the case of PNL and stagnation in the case of USR.”

Romania’s far right has become increasingly prominent, as shown by the shock first round victory for Calin Georgescu in the 2024 presidential election, which was later cancelled amid concerns over Russian interference. 

AUR also made gains in the 2024 general election and its candidate George Simion made it to the second round of the presidential election re-run this May before being defeated by Nicusur Dan in the runoff.