A court case that sought to place trustees at the helm of Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) was on October 24 dismissed by the Ankara 42nd (Asliye Hukuk) civil court of first instance, according to local media reports.

The court reportedly decided that the plaintiffs, who were expelled from the CHP, lacked the active capacity to file a lawsuit. If the case had gone ahead, the court could have questioned the expulsion of the plaintiffs by the defendants.

The plaintiffs have the right to file an objection at higher courts against the ruling to dismiss the case.

Many other lawsuits and investigations that target the CHP, meanwhile, continue. (See the latest on the major cases here).

Markets rally

On the news of the case dismissal, the Borsa Istanbul rallied and Turkey’s five-year credit default swaps (CDS) fell below the 250-level.

Turkey has been focused on the trial process since June. In the previous hearing, held on September 15, the court assigned October 24 as the next hearing date.

Under court examination was whether alleged irregularities should invalidate the CHP national party congress held in November 2023. CHP leader Ozgur Ozel, elected to his position at the congress, could have been relieved of his post if the plaintiffs had succeeded with their case.

Dummy run

Throughout the court process, bne IntelliNews stuck to the view that Ozel in the final analysis poses no threat to Turkey’s ruling regime, meaning the dismissal of him would amount to an unnecessary controversial move.

However, anticipation and tensions over the direction matters appeared to be heading in built up after the Istanbul 45th (Asliye Hukuk) civil court of first instance on September 2 appointed a board of trustees to take over the CHP’s provincial party headquarters in Istanbul.

That court move was something of a gripping moment for observers, including this publication, but in hindsight, given the Ankara decision to drop the case focused on the national party headquarters of the CHP, it turns out to have been a dummy run. The pass was never made.

Imamoglu targeted with espionage case

Also on October 24, government-run news service Anadolu Agency reported that the Istanbul chief prosecutor’s office has launched an espionage investigation against the CHP’s Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, who in mid-March ended up in jail after vowing to challenge Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in the next presidential election.

Additionally, the prosecutor’s office said in a statement that in a separate investigation it had detained 15 people accused of selling personal data of users of a mobile app launched by the Istanbul Municipality. Imamoglu has yet to be targeted in this case.

British, American and Israeli spooks

The espionage allegations are – as watchers of the campaign to sideline Imamoglu would expect – absurd. Someone named Huseyin Gun is said to have bought services from a British digital media agency during Imamoglu’s 2019 campaign to be mayor of Istanbul.

Gun, who worked with Imamoglu campaign director Necati Ozkan, is accused of being associated with British, American and Israeli intelligence services. As a result, Imamoglu is also accused of espionage.

Merdan Yanardag, editor-in-chief of Turkish TV channel Tele 1, has also been arrested as part of the espionage investigation.

‘It was also Imamoglu who set Rome on fire’

“Will you convince this beloved nation, which you have failed to convince with accusations of corruption and terrorism, with a mind-boggling slander like espionage?” Imamoglu, whose usual X account is blocked in Turkey, wrote on X via his @CBAdayOfisi (Presidential Candidacy Office) account.

“According to recent investigations, it is alleged that it was also Ekrem Imamoglu who set Rome on fire. Although we did not live during that period, we still demand this matter be investigated meticulously,” Imamoglu’s wife Dilek Imamoglu (@dk_imamoglu) wrote in a tweet.

Imamoglu spoilt the game

Part of Erdogan’s approach to maintaining power is to provide a space for a controlled opposition in the country’s political system. This helps to create confusion about the actual political situation in the country.

When, in March 2019, Imamoglu fought against the official Istanbul result released at the conclusion of the local elections, he challenged this theatre. Such was the thoroughness of his polling stations operation, he won the day, but the infuriated Erdogan camp demanded a re-run. Imamoglu triumphed again, this time by an even greater margin. Licking their wounds, Erdogan and his henchmen decided that the double-loss was within the limits of tolerability.

However, Imamoglu’s plan to capitalise on his sheer popularity for a repeat performance in the next presidential contest was not seen as tolerable at all.

Required realities

The newly brought espionage case could end up in a seizure of the Istanbul Municipality. The jailed Imamoglu was officially dismissed after he was charged with corruption, but the city parliament defended the CHP’s control over Istanbul by electing another CHP member to replace him.

Terrorism charges, unlike corruption charges, would end with the appointment of trustees to take over the public office. Local media reports now suggest that espionage charges would serve the same purpose; they would require the seizure of the municipality.

In Erdogan’s theatre, the CHP and Imamoglu were supposed to stay smart by not breaching the required realities of the regime. The unspoken warning has always been that doing otherwise would result in Erdogan taking control of the Istanbul Municipality.

Ankara mayor risks trial

Earlier this month, media reports suggested that Ankara prosecutors were applying to the interior ministry for permission to investigate the CHP mayor of the capital city, Mansur Yavas, for corruption.

To Turks, Yavas and Imamoglu are the CHP’s two most popular mayors. There was a real debate over whether Yavas or Imamoglu should be nominated to challenge ruler of 22 years Erdogan for the presidency.

Imamoglu received the party’s blessing, but where is he now? Imamoglu is sat in jail, even, through devious means devised by officials, stripped of the university diploma he legally requires to challenge for the presidency. Now it is Yavas’ chance to read the Erdogan script, stay smart and keep away from any suggestion of a run for the crown. Very likely, the only alternative is his own appointment with the jailer.

On October 21, the 34th Ankara (Agir Ceza) Heavy Penal Court permitted the Ankara prosecutors to pursue their corruption investigation. Yavas risks being tried.