Bolivia has entered a new political era after Rodrigo Paz secured the presidency with 54.5% of the vote, defeating former conservative leader Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, according to preliminary figures. His victory ends nearly two decades of dominance by the hard-left Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS), which collapsed electorally after years of institutional crisis, economic decline and internal fragmentation.

The decisive factor was the economy. Rising inflation, shortages of fuel, scarcity of US dollars and the collapse of the gas industry shaped the vote. The outgoing administration of Luis Arce leaves a country in recession, a currency crisis and widening fiscal deficits. Hydrocarbons — once Bolivia’s main source of revenue — no longer sustain public spending, while queues for petrol and basic goods have become common.

Paz, a 58-year-old senator and son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, ran as a centrist promising to dismantle excessive bureaucracy and implement what he calls “capitalism for all”. His platform targeted the huge informal sector — estimated at 80% of the economy — by proposing lower import barriers, expanded access to credit and a streamlined tax regime. He has vowed to preserve social subsidies but finance reforms through austerity and anti-corruption measures rather than borrowing from the IMF.

A key element of his campaign was vice-president-elect Edman Lara, a former police captain whose anti-corruption messaging on social media attracted disillusioned MAS voters. Analysts cited by Infobae warn, however, that internal tensions could emerge, as Lara’s confrontational style contrasts with Paz’s more pragmatic tone.

Despite his landslide, Paz faces severe geopolitical and institutional constraints. Infobae emphasises that no party controls parliament, meaning major structural reforms — including judicial overhaul and subsidy restructuring — will demand complex negotiations. He must also navigate pressure from Evo Morales, who remains influential in coca-growing regions and, according to Infobae, is expected to mobilise unrest to obstruct the new administration.

Paz has signalled that foreign policy will shift, with ambitions to rebuild relations beyond the Cuba-Venezuela-Iran axis and reopen channels with Washington — a direction already welcomed in the United States.

His government will take office with a mandate for change, but stability will depend on whether economic recovery can be delivered before political resistance overwhelms the agenda.