The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has, for the first time, incorporated sub-Saharan Africa into its Regional Economic Prospects report, covering Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Senegal. Collectively, the six economies are forecast to expand by 4.7% in 2025 and 4.6% in 2026, around 1.5 percentage points above the EBRD-wide average of just over 3%.

Growth in the six sub-Saharan economies is expected to hold at similar levels throughout 2025 before dipping slightly in 2026. The EBRD said the outlook was supported by resilient domestic demand and infrastructure projects, though warned that inflation and fiscal pressures weigh heavily on several countries.

“While inflation pressures continued to ease across most countries, the levels of inflation remain elevated in Nigeria and Ghana,” the bank noted. Extractive industries provided an important boost in 2024 and early 2025, particularly gold mining in Ghana and petroleum in Nigeria, while services and agricultural exports also contributed. Benin and Côte d’Ivoire were singled out as strong performers.

“Fiscal consolidations in Benin and Côte d’Ivoire led to credit rating upgrades, while issues related to fiscal transparency in Senegal resulted in an IMF-supported programme being suspended while the estimate of the country’s debt level was revised sharply upward,” the EBRD said.

Benin is projected to grow by 6.4% in 2025 and 6.7% in 2026, driven by agriculture, services and Cotonou’s port activity. Inflation moderated to 1.8% in 2024, among the lowest in the region. Côte d’Ivoire should expand by 6.5% in 2025 and 6.0% in 2026, anchored by cocoa and cashew exports, construction and energy projects, though climate shocks and political tensions in the north could disrupt trade.

Ghana and Nigeria remain under pressure. Ghana’s economy is forecast to grow 3.1% in 2025, rebounding to 5.7% in 2026 as debt restructuring progresses. Inflation was still around 12% in July 2025, despite falling from its 2022 peak, while fiscal deficits widened ahead of the 2024 election.

Nigeria, the region’s largest economy, lags with projected growth of 3.3% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026. Oil output volatility and weak non-oil activity weigh on momentum, while inflation of about 22% in July 2025 remains the highest in the group, eroding household incomes and confidence despite a GDP rebasing that lowered its debt ratio.

Kenya and Senegal are also on diverging paths. Kenya is expected to expand by 5.7% in 2025 and 4.7% in 2026, supported by services, agriculture and remittances. Inflation is moderate and easing, but high deficits and slow reforms raise concerns. Senegal is entering a hydrocarbon-driven phase, with growth projected at 4.3% in 2025 and 6.9% in 2026, propelled by the start of offshore oil and gas production. Inflation slowed to 0.8% in 2024, though fiscal transparency concerns led to the suspension of an IMF programme and a sharp upward revision of debt levels.

The report also underscored debt vulnerabilities. Ghana, Kenya and Senegal face high ratios of debt and interest payments to GDP. The EBRD noted that “in sub-Saharan Africa, China tends to be a more important lender, accounting for a higher share of bilateral debt (based on the available data, which may in some cases be incomplete).” It added that China’s share of Kenya’s bilateral external debt rose from 2% in 2007 to 58% by 2023, and in Côte d’Ivoire from 1% to 34% over the same period. In Nigeria, China has consistently accounted for 80–90% of bilateral external debt.

The EBRD stressed that while the six economies remain among the fastest-growing in its regions, their paths are diverging. Benin and Côte d’Ivoire are consolidating gains with low inflation and improved ratings, Ghana and Nigeria are struggling with high inflation and fiscal strain, Kenya continues steady expansion, and Senegal is embarking on a new hydrocarbon era.