Polish retail sales grew 6.4% year on year (y/y) in constant prices in September, picking up from a 3.1% y/y rise in August, the statistics office GUS said on October 22.

The September reading came in at just short of the market consensus, which expected a gain of 6.8% y/y. “The increase was mainly driven by last year’s low base, a favourable calendar effect with more trading days, and an improving consumer sentiment,” PKO BP said in a note.

All eight main retail segments posted annual increases in September, compared to five in August, GUS data showed.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco inched up 0.2% y/y in the ninth month after a 3.4% y/y drop in August. Meanwhile, fuel sales rose 7.1% y/y in September, picking up from a 6.1% y/y increase the preceding month.

Sales of cars and car parts rose 15% y/y in September, the expansion rate accelerating after a 9.4% y/y increase in August. Meanwhile, pharmaceuticals and cosmetics rose 4.4% y/y in September, up from 3.3% y/y the preceding month.

Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear gained 20.5% y/y in September, compared to August’s 18.9% y/y growth. Furniture, audio and video equipment and household appliances sales rose 16.1% y/y in September, also picking up versus August’s 13.9% y/y gain.

In the press and books category, sales inched up 0.1% y/y in September, after a 2% y/y fall the preceding month. The broad “other” segment also improved, with a gain of 3.3% y/y in September after a 3.7% y/y fall in August.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices fell 2.7% m/m in September, deepening from a 0.4% m/m decrease in August.

In current prices, retail turnover rose 6.6% y/y in September, compared with a 3% y/y increase in August. Turnover declined 2.5% m/m in current prices in September, compared with a 0.9% m/m fall in the seventh month.

Seasonally adjusted data showed a 4.9% y/y increase in retail turnover in September, compared with a gain of 4.7% y/y in August, while in m/m terms adjusted turnover retreated 0.6% after growing 0.7% m/m the preceding month, GUS said.

With figures for the third quarter of 2025 now available, GDP growth in the period is estimated to have accelerated to around 4% y/y, analysts say.

“The September [retail sales data] confirm a continued recovery in private consumption in the third quarter,” PKO BP said.

In the coming months, “retail sales are expected to be supported by seasonally stronger pre-holiday activity, the payment of social benefits, and improving credit conditions. Still, the main driver of consumption growth will remain spending on services,” PKO BP also said.

Retail sales data do not materially alter the outlook for monetary policy. The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has administered four interest rate reductions this year so far, bringing the reference interest rate down to 4.5%. Another cut is possible in November, with even more easing to come in 2026.