Polish retail sales grew 6.2% year on year (y/y) in constant prices in June, accelerating from a 3% y/y rise in May, the statistics office GUS said on July 22.

The June reading came in 1pp above consensus, helped by more trading days than in the same month a year earlier. Poles' vigorous spending in June and across the first half of 2026 has puzzled analysts, given a marked slowdown in real income growth.

"Retail sales are accelerating despite a marked slowdown in real income growth, caused by weaker nominal gains, particularly in wages, and an unexpected rise in inflation. Real wage growth slowed by 1pp in the first half of the year, and the deceleration could reach 2pp in the coming months," Pekao said in a note.

June sales "bode better for private consumption than we expected a few months ago, although this year's decline in consumers' purchasing power and weak consumption of services should be borne in mind. We maintain our view that private consumption will slow this year," Pekao said.

All eight main retail segments posted annual increases in June, compared with six the preceding month, GUS data showed. Sales of durable goods and food drove the headline result.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco rose 1.7% y/y after contracting 2.8% y/y the preceding month. Sales of furniture, audio and video equipment and household appliances jumped 14.8% y/y versus May's 4.5% y/y gain, while sales of cars and car parts grew 9.6% y/y in June after expanding 2.1% y/y the preceding month.

Fuel sales rose 9% y/y in June after a 9.9% y/y increase the preceding month. Sales of pharmaceuticals and cosmetics rose 10.2% y/y, picking up from 9.3% y/y.

Sales of textiles, clothing and footwear grew 3.3% y/y after increasing 3.8% y/y in May. In the press and books category, sales rose 3% y/y after a 0.6% y/y fall the preceding month. The broad "other" segment gained 9.9% y/y after growing 10.8% y/y in May.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices rose 1.4% in June after May's 1.7% decline. In current prices, retail turnover rose 6.8% y/y in June, compared with a 4.4% y/y increase in May, and gained 0.2% m/m after declining 2% the preceding month.

Seasonally adjusted data showed a 4.7% y/y increase in retail sales in June, compared with a 3.7% y/y gain in May. In monthly terms, adjusted sales expanded 1.7% after rising 0.4% the preceding month, GUS said.

"June retail sales data strengthen the assessment that economic growth accelerated in 2Q, reaching about 3.7% y/y by our estimates, compared with 3.5% y/y in 1Q," Bank Millennium said.

"Consumption will remain an important pillar of economic growth in the coming quarters, although its growth rate will stabilise at around 3% y/y. Investment in fixed assets, supported by inflows of EU funds, should play an increasingly important role in economic growth. The geopolitical environment remains the main source of uncertainty for the economic outlook," it added.

"The incoming data set do not change our expectations for the outlook of the Polish economy or the path of interest rates. We maintain our scenario that, under current conditions, the most likely outcome is that the National Bank of Poland will keep interest rates stable," Bank Millennium said.

The central bank cut its reference rate once this year, by 25bps to 3.75% in March, its lowest level since March 2022, and has held it steady at four meetings since.