The Ministry of Economic Development and Digitalisation (MDED) has lowered its forecast for Moldova’s economic growth in 2025 to 1.3%, down from the previously estimated 2%, citing weaker external demand, according to MoldStreet. 

However, the ministry also estimates that the consistent implementation of investments under the EU accession programme could more than double the country's growth rate to 4.3% in 2028 (chart), compared to the 2.0% growth expected under the baseline scenario of gradual reforms and a stable international context.

Last year, Moldova posted insignificant economic growth as adverse weather dragged down agriculture.

The adjustment in this year’s growth forecast reflects weaker-than-expected exports and higher imports, particularly of energy products.

“This adjustment is mainly determined by the trade deficit, caused by the decrease in exports of goods and the increase in imports, especially those of energy products, above expectations,” MDED said.

The ministry anticipates a gradual recovery by year-end, supported by improved harvests of wheat, barley, corn and sunflower. Increased deliveries of agricultural and food products could partly offset the export decline, while reducing demand for imported vegetable products.

Intra-year shows positive trends in the first half of 2025. Private consumption grew by 6.3% in the first quarter, supported by rising household incomes and greater access to credit. Business investment also rose strongly, with company-funded projects increasing by 26.8% in the first quarter and 25% in the second quarter. MDED attributed this to government policies, including the 0% tax on reinvested profits and favourable lending conditions.

Looking ahead, the ministry outlined three scenarios for medium-term growth based on the EU’s Growth Plan for Moldova. The baseline scenario foresees growth of 1.5-2.0% annually, assuming gradual reforms and stable international conditions. The moderate scenario projects 3.6% growth by 2028 under partial implementation of reforms and investment projects, while the optimistic scenario anticipates up to 4.3% growth if the plan is fully executed.

MDED warned that risks could derail these projections, including escalation of the war in Ukraine, global geopolitical tensions, potential recessions in Moldova’s main trading partners, renewed energy shocks, domestic political instability and adverse weather. “The evolution of these factors will play an essential role in shaping economic dynamics in the coming period,” the ministry noted.