Turkey’s central bank is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 37% at its upcoming monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting on September 10, a survey of financial institutions conducted by BloombergHT showed on September 3.

Earlier on in the day, Turkstat (TUIK) said that the country’s official inflation stood at 31.51% y/y in August. Since April, across the last five months, TUIK has released official annual inflation at 32% (with the rounding of decimals). Since July 2025, the figure has been released at between 30.65% and 33.52%.

The 19 participating market institutions in the BloombergHT survey unanimously predicted that the central bank will maintain its current policy stance in September, signalling that policymakers remain cautious amid sticky domestic inflation pressures and fragile foreign capital flows.

35% at end-2026

The survey highlights a continued consensus among economists that Turkey’s monetary authority is in no rush to initiate an aggressive rate-cutting cycle. Having held rates steady at 37% since January, the central bank appears focused on preserving tight financial conditions to anchor inflation expectations.

While markets still anticipate modest monetary easing before the end of 2026, modelling a cumulative 200-bp reduction to 35%, the narrow spread between the lowest end of 34% and the highest end of 37% reflects a cautious posture.

The last two meetings of this year are scheduled to be held on October 22 and December 10. A cut of 100-bp at each meeting is on the cards.

On August 23, the central bank resumed one-week repo auctions.