Uzbek GDP is expected to expand by 5.5% in 2023 and 5.6% in 2024, according to a revised economic update from the World Bank.
The forecast sees Uzbekistan this year trailing Tajikistan for growth, with the Tajiks expected to post 6.5%, but stay ahead of Kazakhstan (4.5%) and Kyrgyzstan (3.5%).
Main risk factors to Uzbek growth are considered to be the slowing of the Russian economy, the persistence of pro-inflationary factors and tough world financial conditions. Higher gas, gold and copper prices, as well as productivity growth, could be significant pluses.
Uzbekistan posted growth of 5.6% for 1H23. A significant increase in exports (+16%), primarily on shipments of cars and agricultural products and robust tourism, compensated for a decline in remittances.
The Uzbek som, meanwhile, has moved into difficult territory, having lately depreciated against the dollar by 8%.
The budget deficit has increased to 5.7% of GDP due to social spending growth and energy subsidies, combined with excise tax and VAT cuts.
One of the main long-term risk factors for Central Asia as a whole is climate change and the threat of inadequate water resources that could hit intensive economic sectors such as agriculture and hydropower.
Related Articles
Unusually intense heatwave hit Central Asia in March, may impact crop yields
Central Asia experienced an unusually intense heatwave in March that could have an impact on agricultural crop yields, according to an April 4 ... more
Russia’s expulsions of migrants reportedly nearly double in 2024 to around 80,000
Russia in 2024 expelled more than 80,000 migrants for immigration rule violations, compared to 44,200 in 2023 and 26,600 in 2022, TASS reported on January 8. The Russian state news agency cited a ... more
Kazakhstan’s transit of Russian oil to Uzbekistan and China amounts to 10.2mn tonnes in 2024
Russia’s transit of oil through Kazakhstan’s pipeline system, operated by main pipeline operator KazTransOil, to China and Uzbekistan totalled 10.21mn tonnes in 2024, ... more