Russia’s expanding military support for Iran reflects a growing strategic alignment between the two countries, even if the weapons supplied are unlikely to shield Tehran from US or Israeli air power, according to Nikita Smagin of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“Arms supplies from Russia to Iran will not only continue, but could grow significantly if Russia gets the opportunity,” Smagin wrote in a paper published on February 28. Moscow has been increasing deliveries of equipment ranging from trainer jets to attack helicopters and small arms even before the launch of Operation Epic Fury and those supplies are only likely to increase now a full scale war has broken out.

However, the arms delivered so far are limited in scope. The latest agreement, first reported by the Financial Times, involves the sale of Verba man-portable air defence systems worth €500mn. Yet Smagin cautioned against overstating their battlefield impact. “Despite the growing scale of the cooperation in military technology, these arms shipments are still unlikely to be able to protect Iran from US or Israeli air strikes,” he wrote

The Verba system is designed to hit low-altitude aircraft such as helicopters and cruise missiles. During previous strikes, including the 12-day war last June, US and Israeli forces launched most missiles from outside Iranian airspace. American B-2 bombers targeted nuclear facilities from altitudes beyond the reach of even more advanced defences. “In other words, they will only come in useful for targets that are located directly over Iranian territory and are not very high above the ground,” Smagin noted.

He argued that Moscow may have chosen to export the system precisely because it is “not particularly in demand in modern warfare” and is “unsuitable for repelling drone attacks,” ensuring that sales would not undermine Russia’s own campaign in Ukraine.

More consequential are earlier agreements for Su-35 fighter jets and Mi-28 attack helicopters. Evidence surfaced in January that Iran has up to six Mi-28s already in use, despite the helicopter’s active deployment in Ukraine. Tehran has also received Yak-130 trainer aircraft, with additional deliveries suggested by repeated An-124 transport flights.

Much of the evidence for these transfers has come from imagery within Iran itself, including footage of Orsis T-5000M sniper rifles and Spartak armoured vehicles reportedly used to quell protests in January.

“Still, despite Iran’s efforts to expedite the acquisition of new types of weapons, Russian supplies—while growing—are insufficient to significantly alter the current balance of power,” Smagin wrote. For now, the Kremlin appears unwilling or unable to offset US and Israeli military superiority, even as its long-term commitment to Iran deepens.

Since Russian President Vladimir Putin put the Russian economy onto a war footing four years ago, defence production has rapidly expanded. Last year military production went into surplus and Russia has been able to resume the export of arms. Russia arms exports rebounded to pre-war levels of more than $15bn in 2025, supplying military equipment to over 30 countries despite sweeping Western sanctions, President Vladimir Putin said last month.

At the same time the quality of Russian arms has improved thanks to the real-world test conditions of fighting the campaign in Ukraine. In the early stages of the war, Russia imported the Shahed drones from Iran. Iran is a nation of 90mn people and one of the top 5 in drone and missile technology.

Since then, Russia has set up its own large-scale drone production in its hinterland and improved on the Iranian design. At the same time Russia has some very powerful arms in its arsenal like the new hypersonic missiles that the US has yet to develop and has little defence against. Amongst its most formidable weapons, that have not been transferred to Iran yet, are the Oreshnik cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear powered torpedo.

Moreover, both China and Russia have the advantage in anti-ship naval missiles that are capable of destroying US warships long before those ships can get in range of the launch facilities.

But maybe the most consequential weapons that Russia has already delivered to Iran are three Kilo-class submarines, amongst Russia’s best, that have a 300km range and are virtually undetectable when in stealth-mode. It also has 20-23 mini submarines equipped with special torpedoes and submerged-launched Jask-2 anti-ship missiles, besides long-range cruise anti-ship missiles that equip the other 6-7 larger submarines.

With a fleet that even counts the destroyer Sahand and other 25-30 frigates, corvettes, and patrol boats, all equipped with missiles, the Iranian navy can engage with US warships, but remain vulnerable to their arsenal of Tomahawk missiles. Another great peril posed by Iran’s navy is its mosquito fleet of catamarans and fast boats equipped with missiles and some even with anti-air defence systems. Just in 2020, Iran commissioned 100 of these vessels and while they are not very sophisticated, the strategy is to launch them in swarms and simply overwhelm defences by the weight of numbers.