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Sharp drop in Polish inflation paves way for rate cut at next central bank meeting
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Ukraine’s real GDP dropped 5.2% year on year in 10M20, improving from a 5.5% y/y decline in 9M20, according to estimates published on December 9 by the Ministry of Economic Development. The estimates are based on the General Production Index (GPI), which takes into account manufacturing results during the period.
In 10M20, GPI dropped 6.0% y/y, improving from a 6.2% y/y decline in 9M20, the ministry estimated. In October, the trends improved in transportation, trade, and construction. At the same time, the decline in agriculture remains deep, and production in most industrial sectors is still depressed.
“The decline of Ukraine’s economy is slowing down. We expect GDP in 4Q20 to decline 2.2% y/y compared to 3.6% y/y in 3Q20. Ukraine's GDP will conclude the year at around a 4.6% y/y drop compared to 3.2% y/y growth in 2019, according to our forecast,” an analyst at the Kyiv-based Concorde Capital brokerage said in a research note.
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