Ukraine’s Economy Ministry has dramatically downgraded its 2020 macroeconomic forecast and forecasts a 3.9% year-on-year contraction in the economy in 2020, down from its previous prediction of 3.7% y/y growth at the start of the month, the ministry said on March 30.
That is a 7.2% change in growth from top to tail, about half as bad as the 2014 economic contraction of 15% in the first quarter of that year following the Euromaidan protests that ousted former President Viktor Yanukovych.
The Economy Ministry updated forecast also assumes consumer inflation of rising to 8.7% y/y this year from the previous prediction of 5.5% y/y and an average exchange rate of UAH29.50/$ (vs. UAH27.00/$ previously).
Nominal GDP is forecast to come in at UAH4,000bn for the year, down from UAH4,510bn previously forecast, while the average monthly wage is expected at UAH11,000 (UAH12,500 previously). The unemployment forecast has been revised to 9.4% from 8.1% previously.