Ukraine Country Report Apr21 - April, 2021

April 4, 2021

Summary:

Ukraine’s economy continues its strong post-Covid recovery in February, albeit remaining in the red. Although the economic indicators for 1Q21 will likely be sluggish, they should improve substantially in 2Q21. The slump in retail sales, industrial output and agriculture in 2Q20 stemming from the lockdown and drop in global demand has set a low base for 2Q21. This effect will gradually fade away in 2H21, so analysts expect GDP to recover by 4% this year following last year's 4% drop.

Although industrial output worsened to -4.6% y/y from 4.0% in January, this was attributable to seasonal and calendar effects (the low base from 2020, which was a leap year).

After seasonal and calendar adjustments, industrial output edged up 0.4% m/m in February. Retail sales growth, dampened by the high base of the previous year, accelerated to 5.6% y/y in February following 3.5% growth in January. Agriculture contracted 6.5% in February versus a 5.7% drop in January.

The NBU said in a major online press release that “the 2020 GDP fall (by 4.2%) turned out to be less pronounced than expected at the onset of the coronavirus crisis (by 6%). The adverse impact of the stricter quarantine restrictions imposed in January on the economy was only temporary. Business sentiment improved significantly after the January lockdown was lifted. In February, industrial companies reported positive expectations of their business performance, for the first time in the last four months. The expectations of the trade and services sectors almost reached the equilibrium level. The global economy has also rebounded on the back of the rolling out of vaccination campaigns and large-scale stimulus programs.”

Officials project 4.6% growth in 2021. Ukraine’s economy peaked in 2013 with a GDP of over $183bn and has yet to recover to this level in the past 7 years. The Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Yulia Svyrydenko expects GDP growth by 5.1% in 2021. "But we need at least $3bn of foreign investment per year for annual growth of 1-2% of GDP," she said.

To view this extensive report in full including details such as —

  • Macroeconomic Analysis
  • Politics Analysis
  • Industrial sectors and trade
  • FX, Financials and Capital Markets
  • And more!

For a one-off purchase click here

For an annual subscription click here

For a free sample click here

Related Reports

Turkey Country Report Sep21 - September, 2021

In the first year of a new decade, it looks like we have a new phase on our hands. With its withdrawal, the US left a nuclear device in Afghanistan that will explode again and again in the middle of ... more

Ukraine Country Report Sep21 - September, 2021

Ukraine’s economy fell back into recession in the second quarter of this year as the fallout from the pandemic and soaring inflation that caused the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to dramatically ... more

Russia Country Report Sep21 - September, 2021

Russia’s economy expanded by 4.7% in June as the economy continues to stabilise. The Russian economy continued to normalize on a y/y basis, although many sectors have begun to see stagnation, the ... more

Dismiss