Migration drove the European Union’s population to a record 450.4mn last year, Eurostat data showed on July 11, as the bloc increasingly relies on immigrants to offset shrinking birth rates and an ageing population.

The EU has recorded more deaths than births every year since 2012, leaving migration as the only driver of population growth, said the EU’s statistics office. In 2024, net migration added 2.3mn people to the bloc, more than offsetting the natural decline of 1.3mn as deaths (4.82mn) continued to outpace births (3.56mn).

“Following the COVID-19 pandemic, the population of the EU increased again in 2024 ... The negative natural change (more deaths than births) was outnumbered by the positive net migration. The observed population growth can be largely attributed to the increased migratory movements post-COVID-19,” Eurostat said.

While the overall EU population grew by 1.07mn last year, the picture across member states remains sharply uneven. The bloc’s three largest economies – Germany, France and Italy – together accounted for nearly half (47%) of the EU’s population. 

In Central and Southeast Europe, several newer EU member states continued to record population declines despite positive migration trends supporting growth in much of the bloc.

Population changes were uneven among EU members and other European countries in 2024. Source: Eurostat. 

Latvia saw the sharpest drop among EU countries at -9.9 per 1,000 people. It was also the only EU country to record both negative natural change and negative net migration last year. 

In 2024, seven of the eight EU countries that saw population declines were in Central and Eastern Europe, reflecting persistent challenges of youth emigration, low fertility rates, and an ageing population that have become structural features of the region’s demographic landscape.

Latvia was followed by Hungary (-4.7) and Poland and Estonia (both -3.4). Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and parts of the Baltic region also reported falling populations as outward migration and negative natural change weighed on demographic balances.

Outside the EU27, there was an even steeper drop in population in Moldova of -17.5 per 1,000 people and Albania (-11.6). Elsewhere in the Western Balkans, the populations of Serbia (-5.7), Bosnia & Herzegovina (-3.1) North Macedonia (-2.0) and Montenegro (-0.6) also fell. 

Migration has been the EU’s primary source of population growth since the 1990s, Eurostat data shows. While migration slowed during the COVID-19 pandemic, it rebounded sharply post-pandemic, helping the bloc avoid an overall population decline.

Net migration in the EU increased from +1.2mn in 2021 to +2.3mn in 2024, a sharp rise that helped lift the population despite a continued drop in births. In contrast, the EU’s average annual population increase was around 3mn per year during the 1960s, slowing to about 0.9mn annually between 2005 and 2024 as fertility rates declined.

While Western European nations and some southern states such as Portugal and Spain managed to offset low birth rates with strong inward migration, most CEE countries struggled to do the same.

The EU’s demographic trajectory is placing increasing strain on welfare systems across the continent, with low birth rates and an ageing population raising concerns about labour shortages and pension sustainability.

These pressures are particularly acute in Central and Southeast Europe, where economic convergence with Western Europe has been accompanied by decades of emigration, often of young and skilled workers.

Despite this, migration remains a politically sensitive issue in several CEE countries, complicating efforts to use immigration as a tool to mitigate demographic decline and address labour shortages in industries ranging from manufacturing to healthcare.

As the number of deaths in the EU is expected to continue rising due to an ageing population, and fertility rates remain at historically low levels, the EU’s future population trajectory will depend heavily on migration trends.

While countries such as Ireland, Malta and Luxembourg posted the highest growth rates in the EU in 2024 due to both positive net migration and higher birth rates, there are persistent declines in parts of Central and Southeast Europe.