Polish retail sales grew 7.6% year on year in constant prices in April, beating the consensus, which had expected a 3.4% annual increase, the statistics office GUS said on May 26.

The contraction follows a surprise fall of 0.3% y/y in March. “April retail sales surprised to the upside, rising twice as high as the market consensus. Economists expected a jump in sales due to the Easter effect, which was indeed visible in the food sales data, but demand for durable goods continued improving as well,” ING said in a note.

Consumption is expected to be an important driver of Poland’s economic growth, which is projected to reach some 3%-4% in 2025, provided the impact of the US-led global trade war is not too severe.

“Our expectations are that, following weak consumption growth in the first quarter of 2025, it will gradually pick up. This should be supported by the continued strength of the domestic labour market and solidly rebuilt savings,” Bank Millennium said.

Seven out of eight main retail segments expanded on an annual basis in April, GUS data showed.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco grew 9.7% y/y in April after falling 9.4% y/y the preceding month. Fuel sales increased 1.6% y/y in April after retreating 0.1% y/y in March.

Sales of cars and car parts eased slightly to 14.9% y/y in April after rising 18.4% y/y in March. In the pharmaceuticals and cosmetics segment, sales picked up growth to 7.5% y/y in April, after a 5% y/y increase the preceding month.

Textiles, clothing and footwear sales grew 8.4% y/y in April after expanding 6.7% y/y in March, while sales of furniture, audio and video equipment, and household appliances rose 13.2% y/y, still more than March’s solid increase rate of 12.9% y/y.

Sales in the press and books in the specialised stores category gained 3.9% y/y in April after adding 1% y/y the preceding month.

Only in the broader “other” category did sales decline, retreating 6% y/y in April after falling 12.2% y/y the preceding month.

On a monthly basis, retail sales in constant prices grew 6.2% m/m in April after a 14.3% m/m gain in March, GUS data also showed.

In current prices, retail turnover added 7.9% y/y in April after an increase of 0.6% y/y the preceding month. Month on month, turnover gained 6.2% m/m in the fourth month after growing 14.6% m/m in March.

Seasonally adjusted data showed retail turnover grow 6.4% y/y in April after a gain of 1% y/y in March while expanding 3.5% m/m in April after a 1.9% m/m increase in March, GUS said.

April retail sales and other high-frequency macroeconomic indicators at the beginning of the second quarter point to stable interest rates in the coming months.

"The combination of a solid rebound in sales and higher-than-expected wage growth in April may make the National Bank of Poland more cautious about further interest rate cuts,” PKO BP said.

“The second half of the year should bring more monetary easing, although the timing remains uncertain and depends not only on macroeconomic factors but also on political and regulatory decisions,” Bank Millennium said, referring to the 2026 budget bill, the increase in the minimum wage, or any scheme to control electricity prices for households.