Poland maintains its position on plans to tie the incoming EU budget and coronavirus recovery fund with observing the rule of law, the spokesman of the United Right government said on December 4.

Spokesman Piotr Muller appeared to try to ease tensions mounting within the government ahead of the EU summit on December 10-11 that is expected to clinch the deal on the bloc’s €1.1 trillion budget for the years 2021-2027. A €750bn recovery fund to help EU economy rebound after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is also on the table.

But the deal is far from certain, as Poland and its ally Hungary – both under scrutiny for their governments’ undermining judicial independence, attacking the media and NGOs – oppose conditioning access to money on adhering to the rule of law.

Both countries say they will veto the budget deal, which requires unanimity, if the rule of law clause remains. That would trigger provisional, and much limited, financial arrangements without the recovery fund, hitting a number of countries struggling in the wake of the pandemic.

Even with its relatively shallow recession, Poland would also be worse off without the deal, expected to fuel the economy of the 38mn-strong country with €170mn in 2021-2027 from the budget and €23mn in 2021-2023 from the recovery fund.

Warsaw and Budapest both claim that the rule of law clause in the budget deal would lead to the “primacy of political and arbitrary criteria [in accessing the money] over a substantive assessment,” Poland’s Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said in November. 

But Morawiecki’s position appeared precarious at home, as two minor coalition parties in the government led by Law and Justice (PiS) presented opposing views on the veto this weekend.

Veto should be the last resort, Jaroslaw Gowin, the leader of the centrist Accord, said, adding that a possible solution could be European Commission coming up with “interpretative declarations” on what linking the budget and the fund with the rule of law means in practice.

Gowin’s compromise inclinations are in stark contrast to the position of Zbigniew Ziobro, the justice minister and the leader of the other coalition party, United Poland. 

Ziobro continues to hit at Morawiecki by saying the rule of law link is threatening Poland’s sovereignty and that in negotiating with the EU one must be “tough, not weak”.

United Poland is also going as far as implying that Poland’s EU membership – in its 16th year in 2021 – has not benefited the country that much.

“Veto or death,” tweeted United Poland’s Janusz Kowalski, an MP and the deputy minister of state assets, in November.

United Poland’s position is relatively strong, as the government will not have a majority if the party decides to leave the coalition, possibly leading to an early election, which the coalition might well use, as voters appear increasingly disillusioned with its handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

Meanwhile, pressure is also mounting on Poland from abroad.

“The budget for 2021 can only enter into force once the blockage on the overall EU budget and recovery package is lifted. Without this, we are looking at a drastic cut in EU funding from the beginning of next year,” German ambassador to the EU Michael Clauss said, Reuters reported on December 4.

Warsaw and Budapest themselves stand to lose billions if they veto the budget and the recovery fund and other member states move to launch the recovery fund without the rogue duo, French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune said on December 6.

“It’s not a threat but the direct consequence of the absence of a new budget if they maintain their veto on the package,” he told the weekly Journal du Dimanche, Reuters reported.

“We will not sacrifice either the recovery or the rule of law. There is no question of reviewing the mechanism which links the two,” Beaune also said.