About 28% of Kosovo citizens aged 18 and above are contemplating emigrating in the first half of 2024, after EU visa liberalisation become available for the tiny Balkan country starting from January 1, according to a study conducted by Kosovo’s GAP Institute and published on January 12.

The study showed that the age group under 24 is the most inclined to emigrate, with 33.4% expressing a desire to relocate.

The report titled "Tendency to Emigrate from Kosovo after Visa Liberalization: The Impact on the Workforce", sheds light on the anticipated repercussions of citizen emigration on Kosovo's labour market.

In terms of sectors, the report identifies construction (18.7%), hotel and gastronomy (18.7%), trade (18.1%) and production (12.9%) as the most vulnerable to employee departures in the short and medium term.

These sectors, despite having a high workforce and productivity, grapple with persistently low wages. The report suggests that salary increments are anticipated in these fields compared to others, pointing to a shift observed in 2023, where 27.4% of surveyed employees reported a wage increase.

There were already concerns in some sectors that the new visa-free regime would encourage Kosovans to leave their home country for EU member states, despite the growth of better-paying jobs in sectors such as ICT. 

Germany stands out as the top destination for citizens intending to emigrate, as the preferred country for 71.4% of the planned relocations. Switzerland follows with 11.7%, and Austria with 5.3%.

The report delves into historical emigration trends, revealing that from 2012 to 2022, over 338,000 citizens left Kosovo.

In 2022 alone, 41,553 citizens emigrated, leading to a decrease of 21,571 individuals in the active workforce and 14,698 in the inactive workforce.

The report stresses that without activating the inactive labour force, which is currently substantial, the replacement of missing labour by foreign immigrants remains inadequate.

In 2022, 2,979 foreign nationals immigrated to Kosovo for employment reasons, covering less than 14% of the labour force that exited the market.