Hungary will be the last country to ratify Sweden's bid to join Nato after Turkish lawmakers gave the green light, a scenario that Prime Minister Viktor Orban wanted to avoid at all costs.

Hungary’s radical rightwing prime minister faced another diplomatic embarrassment on January 23 after Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrm turned down his proposal for discussions in Budapest on the issue. A few hours later, the Turkish parliament overwhelmingly supported Sweden’s accession to the military alliance.

In the last few days, behind-the-scenes diplomatic efforts intensified regarding Sweden's Nato membership, a process that has been dragging on for over 18 months. On Monday, British Foreign Minister Lord David Cameron tweeted that he had discussed with Orban "the importance of Sweden's swift accession to Nato, making allies safer, Nato stronger and the Euro-Atlantic area more secure". According to media reports, the former UK prime minister, acting as a middleman between Sweden and Hungary, was exerting pressure on Orban to change course.

On January 22,  public policy research and advocacy organisation the Center for American Progress issued a scathing report. It claimed that Hungary's democratic backsliding seriously threatens transatlantic security, which requires a strategic response from Washington. The liberal think tank issued several policy resolutions to combat Hungary’s obstructionist tactics, raising serious questions about its alignment with Nato's broader goals and principles.

As news surfaced about the vote in the Turkish parliament in early Tuesday, the prime minister’s press office hastily issued a statement that Orban has invited his Swedish counterpart Ulf Kristersson for talks focusing on Nato integration and strengthening bilateral relations "through a deepening of mutual trust".

The sobering response from Stockholm came later in the day, after Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said that "there is no reason at this point to negotiate. What we hope, of course, is that Hungary will ratify membership as soon as possible", he added.

On news of the invitation, the head of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee, Michael Roth, responded harshly, saying the proposal was a move by an autocrat who thinks too much of himself and is also the result of a failure of the EU and member states, which had given in to the coward threats of Orban.

Hungary’s pro-Russian leader, who has blocked financial assistance to Ukraine and opposed EU sanctions on Moscow, has previously shrugged off calls by the opposition and foreign partners to speed up the ratification process, saying that it was the Fidesz faction that voiced its opposition.

MPs of the ruling party first claimed that parliament had other more important legislation to deal with, but later the narrative changed, saying that Swedish politicians were spreading "blatant falsehoods" about the state of democracy and the rule of law in Hungary and this argument was used as a pretext to delay the procedure. Pro-Orban media dug up a 10-minute educational video produced by a Swedish public-service education broadcaster years ago, which described Hungary as a country where democracy was eroding.

Neither Orban nor his senior officials have indicated what kind of redress they require from Stockholm to allay their reservations over Sweden joining the military alliance.  Turkey on the other hand had clear objectives in the bargaining process and achieved most of it, though the White House has not officially approved the delivery of F-16 fighter jets to Ankara yet.

Budapest had sent a delegation to Stockholm in the summer of 2023 and after the Nato summit in Vilnius in July 2023, government officials said the approval was just a technical issue. This came after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan changed course and promised at the Nato summit to ratify Sweden's bid in the autumn.

A similar scenario unfolded over the ratification of the Finland’s accession. Hungarian lawmakers gave the green light in March 2023 only after Ankara announced its support.

From the set of events unfolding in the past few days, it seems that Erdogan, who had met Orban several times in the last 12 months, failed to inform him about the impending vote for Sweden’s accession. 

Orban's strategy backfired and now either he pushes for a quick vote, convening an extraordinary session of parliament, now in recess, or continues to block Sweden's bid, further alienating allies. Foreign policy experts note that the entire procedure was a total diplomatic failure, which further tarnished the country’s reputation and its commitment to the trans-Atlantic alliance.