With new Western funding snarled in internal debates in both the US and EU, continuing to supply Ukraine with ammunition for its air defences has become existential.

Two days before the New Year’s Eve celebration, the most important holiday in the Eastern European calendar, Russia launched its biggest missile barrage since the start of the war almost two years ago. Analysts say the attack was an attempt to both overwhelm Ukraine’s increasingly efficient air defences and deplete its stock of anti-missile ammunition at a time when resupplying Ukraine with more ammo is in increasing doubt.

"The current situation with man-portable air defence systems for mobile air-defence groups is that there is enough ammunition to withstand the next few powerful attacks," Serhiy Nayev, the commander of Ukraine's joint forces told the AFP news agency.

The headline US $61bn aid package and the EU’s four-year €50bn funding may have been tied up in internal wrangling, but in a sign of the fudges to come this year to keep Ukraine supplied with weapons it needs to continue resisting Russian aggression, Nato agreed this week on deal to buy 1,000 Patriot missiles for coalition members.

Nato members have been sending Ukraine their Patriot missiles which have been able to shoot down all of Russia’s next-generation hypersonic Kinzhal missiles in the recent attack, but have depleted their stocks in the process.

Nato's Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) announced a deal on January 3 for the purchase of 1,000 Patriot air defence missiles for coalition members, including Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, and Spain. While there is no formal commitment to send any of the new Nato Patriot missiles to Ukraine, the purchase of fresh stocks creates a reserve that can be used for that purpose should the US and EU fail to approve the new funding packages.

A recent military assessment by US military experts concluded that without more western money Ukraine would run out of precision missiles in January, air defence ammunition in the next two months and the key 155mm artillery shells by the summer.

The issue of air defence is high on the agenda as Russia is expected to continue to target urban areas and key infrastructure of heating and power facilities throughout the coldest months of the year.

Following the start of the barrage, Ukraine has called a meeting of the Ukraine-Nato council, an informal gathering for Ukraine to coordinate its military efforts against Russia with Nato members.

Baltic leaders also called this week for more air defence systems for Ukraine after Russia's latest attack. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda and Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics called for more air defence systems for Ukraine following Russia's January 2 large-scale missile attack against the country.

Looking to the rest of the year, Ukraine is also intending to up the production of ammunition and materiel this year as it attempts to become a military production hub and so reduce its dependence on Western-made arms.

Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on January 3 that Ukraine plans to increase its defence industrial base output six-fold in 2024.

Shmyhal reiterated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s December 27 statement that Ukraine’s defence production capacity tripled in 2023 compared to 2022 and highlighted the importance of additional drones, shells, ammunition, and armoured vehicles for Ukrainian forces.

French Ambassador to Ukraine, Gaël Veyssière, also emphasised the shift in sending Ukraine weapons this year to helping Ukraine to produce more of its own munitions in comments to the press this week.

"French support to Ukraine will gradually change its character, as the goal is to produce more weapons in Ukraine, not just donations or purchases," he said, adding that it will take some time to transition from one strategy to another.

Turkish and German arms-makers have already concluded joint venture deals to start building new arms production facilities.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said on January 4 US intelligence officials confirmed that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from North Korea and is seeking close-range ballistic missiles from Iran for use in its war in Ukraine.

Russian forces fired at least one of those ballistic missiles into Ukraine on December 30, Kirby said, adding that a Russia-Iran deal on ballistic missiles had not been completed but is “actively advancing,” RFE/RL reported.