A sequence of contradictory official statements from Romania and Britain over the weekend left Nato allies, Moscow and the world uncertain about what was claimed to be the first use of Nato military assets to bring down Russian drones flying in Ukrainian space since the war began four years ago.

Initial reports claimed that the UK’s RAF scrambled typhoon fighters based in Romania and flew them along the Ukrainian border to shoot down Russian drones flying in Ukrainian airspace, without entering Ukrainian airspace. If confirmed it would be the first use of Nato military power to directly intervene in the Russo-Ukraine conflict since the February 2022 invasion. The Kremlin has warned that any use of Nato military forces in what it calls its “special military operation” would be seen as active participation in the war by Nato, and as such, an attack by Nato on Russia.

However, after a day of confusion, details emerged that appear to qualify the initial reports.

In the early hours of Saturday April 25, two RAF Eurofighter Typhoon jets were scrambled from the 86th Air Base in Fetești, Romania, at approximately 02:00 local time following reports of Russian drone attacks near the Romanian border in Tulcea County. The RAF Typhoons are deployed to Romania as part of Nato's Enhanced Air Policing mission on the alliance's eastern flank, operating from Fetești as part of the 121 Expeditionary Air Wing.

The aircraft established radar contact with a target located 1.5 kilometres from Reni, a Ukrainian port city on the Danube barely a stone's throw from Romanian soil. Romania's Ministry of National Defence stated that "the pilots were authorised to engage the drones," and that multiple explosions were subsequently reported near Reni.

The Romanian statement, published early on the same morning, was rapidly reported around the world as confirmation that a Nato aircraft had shot down a Russian drone over Ukrainian territory for the first time and crossed what Vladimir Putin had described in March 2022 as a "red line."

The UK Ministry of Defence issued its own statement later the same day saying that both aircraft had been scrambled from Borcea Air Base but returned to base without engaging any Russian assets and did not enter Ukrainian airspace.

Romania subsequently issued a second press release directly addressing the confusion generated by its original statement, confirming that the RAF Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft operated strictly within Romanian airspace throughout the mission and did not enter Ukrainian airspace at any point.

Romania's second statement confirmed that "while the pilots received authorization to engage the aerial targets, no drones were shot down by the aircraft, because the drones did not breach Romanian airspace," adding that "the mission remained one of surveillance, deterrence, and readiness to respond if required."

Colonel Cristian Popovici, head of the Information Directorate of Romania's Ministry of National Defence, told the television channel Digi24 that the British pilots did not fire on the drone that subsequently came down in Galați, because neither the pilots nor the ground radars had detected the target in Romanian airspace — only over Ukraine.

"There was a swarm of 15 drones in the direction of Reni, which suddenly disappeared from the radars, after which explosions followed in Ukraine. We are not allowed to intervene on the territory of Ukraine," Popovici said.

A Russian drone — part of the swarm of 15 one-way attack UAVs — crashed in the municipality of Galați, Romania, destroying a house extension and an electricity pole. No casualties were reported. Romanian authorities evacuated nearby residents as a precaution and temporarily shut off gas supply across several streets in the affected area. Romania's Foreign Ministry summoned the Russian ambassador to Bucharest in protest.

Threats on Nato eastern flank grow

The confusion generated by Romania's initial statement shows the rules of engagement on Nato's eastern flank are evolving in ways that are not fully communicated even between allies, and the threshold between authorisation to engage and actual engagement is being tested in real time.

The threat on Nato’s eastern flank is growing at a time when trust in Nato is falling. French President Emmanuel Macron called the reliability of Nato’s Article 5 collective security clause into question during a visit to Greece over the weekend, but went on to say that Europe mustn’t act to weaken Nato, which connects the continent with its American ally.

Tensions on the Nato border have grown sharply since Russia’s Polish drone incursion on September 10 last year, when half a dozen unarmed reconnaissance drones flew half way across Poland before being shot down. Poland scrambled its air force and had to rely on extra support for Denmark and spent a reported $1.4bn on air defence interceptor missiles.

More recently, the Kremlin has warned Nato allies that it might retaliate after Ukraine has sent long-distance drones to strike Russia’s oil ports in the Baltic Sea at Primorsk and Ust-Luga, flying them north inside the Baltic air space, also Nato-members.

As confidence in Nato falls, Europe has turned to a Euro Nato that is based on EU’s own collective security clause Article 42/7 in the Lisbon treaty that some commentators say is stronger than Nato’s protection and crucially does not rely on US participation. The clause has only been invoked once by France during a 2015 Paris terror attack, but Cyprus asked for the clause to be beefed up after it was attacked by Iranian missiles last week.

“The lesson we must draw is, let us no longer be dependent,” Macron said after talks with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. “We Europeans must strengthen this European pillar of Nato, we must strengthen this Europe of defence — not against anyone, not as an alternative to anything.”

Macron was in Greece after Cyprus for an informal European Union leaders’ summit, to renew a 2021 defence partnership between France and Greece that includes a mutual assistance clause in case of an attack. Both leaders motioned the EU’s Article 42/7, which is growing in importance to underpin security deals.

Tensions rose further over the weekend after Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wanted a Russian attack is not five years away but could come within a month.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius also took the almost unprecedented step of releasing Germany’s national defence strategy for the second time ever that names Russia as an explicit threat and has promised to build up the Bundeswehr into the largest conventional army in Europe in the coming years to counter the Russian threat. Other frontline states are also getting ready.

Romanian Parliament has previously passed a law authorising the downing of drones violating the country's airspace. In addition to violating Poland’s airspace last September, Russian drones also crossed into Romanian airspace a few days later.

Following this weekend’s threats, Romania's Defence Minister announced plans for the imminent deployment of the American Merops anti-drone system, which uses artificial intelligence to automatically detect and intercept aerial targets.