Chinese investment announcements in African countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) rose 254% year on year to a record $33.5bn in the first half of 2026, making the continent the largest regional destination for investment under the programme.

The increase lifted the total to about 3.5 times its level in the same period of 2025, according to an analysis by the Shanghai-based Green Finance & Development Center and the University of Queensland Business School.

The BRI is China’s global infrastructure and investment programme, launched in 2013. It supports projects such as ports, railways, roads, power plants, mines, factories and digital networks, often through Chinese financing, investment or construction companies.

Beijing presents it as a way to improve trade and connectivity. Critics point to debt risks, weak transparency, environmental concerns and China’s growing strategic influence.

The figures in the analysis cover announced investments rather than capital already disbursed. The researchers include projects backed by signed implementation contracts or clear investment announcements, but warn that their dataset remains subject to revision and does not guarantee that every project will be completed as planned.

Africa was one of only two BRI regions to record significant investment growth, alongside East Asia, while investment announcements declined across all other regions covered by the study.

The increase contrasted with the global trend. The report put total first-half BRI engagement at $126.4bn, comprising approximately $49.8bn in investment and $76.5bn in construction contracts.

Investment fell by $6.2bn year on year, while construction contracts increased by $12.2bn. The researchers identified about 186 transactions across 67 BRI countries.

Ethiopia and Egypt drive Africa’s investment surge

Africa’s surge was driven by several unusually large renewable-energy, green-ammonia, metals-processing and manufacturing projects, particularly in Ethiopia and Egypt.

Ethiopia recorded the largest year-on-year increase in total BRI engagement of any country, rising by $18.9bn.

The report identified two Ethiopian green-energy and associated manufacturing investment announcements worth a combined $14.8bn, dominated by a project involving Ming Yang Smart Energy Group (SSE:601615).

The researchers valued the expanded and licensed Ming Yang development at $14.17bn, including renewable-power and green-ammonia facilities. About $7.47bn of the first phase was allocated to physical power-generation assets.

The project had initially been introduced through a memorandum of understanding worth more than $10bn before its scope was expanded and licensed in May, according to the report.

The figures represent the stated value of the development rather than proof that the entire amount has been financed or invested.

Egypt attracted $12.2bn in announced Chinese investment, including a proposed $10bn integrated steel complex planned by Xin Feng Steel.

Egyptian authorities have said the development would have annual capacity of about 10mn tonnes of automotive and industrial steel and occupy a site covering roughly 10mn square metres.

The proposed complex would include hot- and cold-rolling lines, galvanising facilities and production for the automotive, infrastructure, pipeline and engineering industries.

Egyptian officials have projected that the development could create about 15,000 direct jobs and more than 85,000 indirect positions, although the complex remains a proposal rather than an operating project.

Private Chinese companies take a larger role

The Ethiopian and Egyptian projects reflect a broader shift in Chinese engagement with Africa from conventional state-backed infrastructure construction towards investment in manufacturing, energy-transition industries and processing facilities.

Private companies accounted for 47.7% of the value of total BRI engagement during the first half, up from 12.5% in 2020.

The researchers said private firms had increasingly taken the lead in financing investment projects, often using their own balance sheets, while Chinese state-owned enterprises remained dominant in construction contracts.

Ming Yang and Xin Feng led investment activity, while Power Construction Corporation of China, or PowerChina (SSE:601669), China State Construction Engineering Corporation (SSE:601668) and China Communications Construction Company (SSE:601800; HKEX:1800) were among the largest contractors.

The shift towards private investment coincided with a return to larger projects.

The average value of investment transactions exceeding $100mn rose to a record $958mn in the first half, compared with $672mn in 2024 and about three times the 2020 level.

The study identified 32 projects worth more than $1bn, up from 29 in the same period of 2025.

The researchers said the return of large transactions suggested that the “small yet beautiful” project model promoted during the coronavirus pandemic was becoming less representative of BRI activity.

Green energy leads, but fossil-fuel projects continue

Energy remained the largest sector, accounting for 28.7% of total BRI engagement and reaching a first-half record of about $36.3bn.

Renewable energy accounted for 56% of energy engagement, the first time green projects represented more than half of the sector’s total.

Chinese engagement in wind, solar, waste-to-energy and hydropower reached approximately $20bn, broadly matching the level recorded during the whole of 2025.

Announced green-energy projects in the dataset represented more than 20GW of prospective generating capacity.

Chinese companies nevertheless continued to participate in fossil-fuel developments.

The report identified a proposed 600MW coal-fired power plant in Zambia involving Ziquan Group Singapore, although the project remained subject to several regulatory approvals.

The report’s summary section separately referred to a 660MW plant, creating an internal capacity discrepancy. The more detailed coal section specified 600MW.

Oil and gas engagement totalled about $15.9bn, including $14bn in gas and $1.9bn in oil projects, down substantially from the first half of 2025.

Metals, technology and manufacturing attract record spending

Metals and mining engagement reached a record $21.8bn, exceeding every full-year total since 2013 except 2025.

About 80% of the sector’s activity involved processing facilities rather than direct extraction, including steel production in Egypt and aluminium processing in Kazakhstan.

Technology engagement increased by about 11% year on year to $17bn, while manufacturing rose 81% to $6.5bn.

Manufacturing activity consisted entirely of investment announcements, while 74% of technology engagement took the form of investment rather than construction contracts.

Major transactions included a $2.6bn battery-factory construction contract involving BYD (SZSE:002594; HKEX:1211) in Indonesia and a $2.4bn battery park in Portugal.

Transport engagement rose to $18.2bn, marking its first increase since 2020. The entire total consisted of construction contracts covering railways, roads, aviation and ports.

Trade barriers encourage manufacturing in Africa

The report said Africa’s investment performance may partly reflect growing trade barriers affecting goods exported directly from China.

Some African production locations may offer Chinese manufacturers lower costs, proximity to European markets and lower trade barriers for qualifying goods, depending on local-content and rules-of-origin requirements.

The researchers cited Morocco as an example of Chinese and European vehicle manufacturers locating production near the European Union market to benefit from lower manufacturing costs and shorter supply chains.

Such investment could provide African economies with jobs, industrial capacity and technology transfer, although the benefits will depend on domestic sourcing, workforce training, taxation and the share of production retained locally.

Trade uncertainty may sustain Chinese overseas investment

Christoph Nedopil, a University of Queensland professor and the report’s lead author, said global trade uncertainty could encourage further Chinese investment in minerals processing, electric vehicles, batteries and renewable energy.

“Global trade uncertainty could further drive investments in what China calls the ‘New Three’ – mining and minerals processing, technology like EV and battery manufacturing, and renewable energy,” Nedopil said.

China more commonly uses the term “New Three” to refer to electric vehicles, batteries and renewable-energy products, while mining and processing support those industries.

Nedopil said fossil-fuel price volatility associated with the Strait of Hormuz crisis could also strengthen the commercial case for renewable energy and localised manufacturing.

He expects BRI engagement to remain strong during the remainder of 2026, with investment focused on energy, mining, processing and new technologies.

China’s overseas investment remains modest relative to GDP

The report said China’s overseas investment footprint nevertheless remained modest relative to the size of its economy.

Official data put China’s outward foreign direct investment at about 0.8% of GDP in 2025, compared with 1.7% for Germany, 4% for the Netherlands, 4.2% for Japan and 10.1% for the United Arab Emirates.