Ukraine has denied that its forces were responsible for the latest drone attacks on tankers using the Russian Black Sea port that ships around four-fifths of Kazakhstan’s oil exports.

Kyiv has suggested that the attacks – on waters in proximity to export transit infrastructure that receives Kazakh oil shipped by the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) – were actually false flag operations run by Russian military drone units. It spoke out after Kazakhstan responded to four drone strikes on tankers that took place in four days, from July 17 to 20, saying they undermined global energy security and were an “unacceptable infringement upon the economic interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan”.

Reuters, meanwhile, reported on July 21 that CPC had stopped receiving crude from Kazakhstan after suspending loadings because storage tanks at the Black Sea terminal, in the vicinity of Novorossiysk, were full. Oil shipments made by CPC via the Russian route account for around 2% of global oil supply.

Ukraine's Ambassador to Kazakhstan, Viktor Mayko, issued the denial of Ukrainian involvement in the drone strikes in remarks made to The Times of Central Asia.

Mayko was quoted as saying that Ukraine understood Kazakhstan's concerns over the attacks but stressed there was no evidence linking Kyiv to the four incidents.

"I would like to note that the Ukrainian authorities recently warned of the possibility of Russian provocations, including the use of Ukrainian drones," Mayko was reported as saying. He added that Russia's electronic warfare systems were even capable of disrupting or taking control of Ukrainian drones for redirection and called for a thorough investigation into whether such tactics had been used "to carry out provocations and attempt to discredit Ukraine".

The envoy added that Ukraine only targets military objectives and infrastructure supporting Russia's war effort.

"Kazakhstan, its citizens, infrastructure, and economic interests have never been, and are not currently, considered military targets by Ukraine. Any attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium infrastructure or other economic and energy assets of the Republic of Kazakhstan are not in Ukraine's interests," he said.

Despite Mayko’s words, it is the case that in February, the US issued a formal warning, or demarche, to Kyiv over damage suffered by American commercial interests caused by Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea infrastructure used by Kazakhstan for most of its crude oil exports. There is US investment in CPC and oil and gas production in Kazakhstan.

In the latest attacks, a drone struck the oil tanker Nelsa on July 20. The incident followed attacks on two other tankers, ASIA and NISSOS IOS, on July 19. Earlier, on July 17, the Nordic Zenith, a Suezmax-class tanker chartered to load crude at the Black Sea terminal, was damaged in a separate drone attack. The vessel was chartered by US oil major ExxonMobil. 

Hostage to CPC

Kazakhstan has sought to diversify its oil export routes in recent years to reduce reliance on the CPC corridor. However, alternative export options remain limited. IntelliNews reported earlier this year the perspective of a Carnegie analyst, Sergey Vakulenko, who said that Ukraine risked alienating allies with attacks on oil infrastructure in Russia that is vital to Kazakhstan’s oil exports and economy and is used by Western oil majors. If Novorossiysk was to become a target under sustained attacks and became unusable as an oil export location, it could cost Kazakhstan and the majors tens of billions of dollars a year, Vakulenko wrote. He also shared his view that Kazakhstan does have any workable alternatives to the CPC given the nature of the country's geography.

Other analysts also believe Kazakhstan’s ability to divert significant volumes away from the CPC is limited. Elena Lazko, managing partner at S+Consulting, and Maksim Shaposhnikov, an adviser at investment fund Industrial Code, told Russian business daily Vedomosti earlier this year that alternative routes require time and additional costs to scale up.

Lazko said exports to China could potentially rise to around 10mn tonnes per year, but profitability from western Kazakh fields would be much lower than via the CPC. Shaposhnikov put the growth potential for China-bound exports at 3-4mn tonnes per year.

Expanding flows via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhah (BTC) route to the Turkish Mediterranean would require pipeline upgrades and a larger tanker fleet to negotiate the Caspian Sea , Lazko said, estimating the maximum potential at 6mn tonnes per year. Shaposhnikov said up to 5mn tonnes per year could be redirected through Aktau to Baku and Makhachkala.

Kazakhstan could ship up to 17mn tonnes per year through Transneft’s system and also increase rail exports, Shaposhnikov said. Overall, he estimated Kazakhstan’s alternative export capacity at about 20mn tonnes per year, nearly three times less than current CPC annual volumes piped.

Lazko warned that reduced CPC exports could cost Kazakhstan more than $25bn annually. She added that any prolonged disruption would also affect the interests of the major international companies operating the country’s main oilfields, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Eni and Shell. Chevron’s operations in Kazakhstan, for example, account for around 20% of the company’s total global output, second only to the US.