The E3 European leaders met in London over the weekend to thrash out a new formula to take to the Kremlin and end the war in Ukraine.

Unfortunately, the document they produced takes us all the way back to the very beginning of the process. It leads, like before, with a demand for an unconditional ceasefire to proceed any negotiations with the Kremlin - a condition that Russia has ruled out from the very start.

This list is little different from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s counteroffer to Trump’s final offer proposed at the London summit last April. That also led with a “demand” for an unconditional ceasefire before any negotiations could start. The Kremlin rejected that out of hand then as well. If you remember, the Trump administration’s proposal was aggressive and basically included most of Putin’s demands, agreed with Trump at the Alaska summit. Zelenskiy was emboldened to reject the final offer thanks to support of his European allies, which seem determined to keep Ukraine in the field for as long as possible.

None of the EU’s suggestions in the last year of talks since that London summit are remotely realistic. You don’t need to be a student of international affairs to be able to see pretty much everything they have proposed are non-starters. If you are serious about ending a war you need to start the talks on some sort of common ground, but leading with an unconditional ceasefire, which is not a prerequisite for talks, is clearly pointless. Why not pick up from the Trump administration’s 27-point peace plan (27PPP) which Putin said was “almost good enough”. Of course, the E3 and Bankova can hack away at that list, but at least the Russians would sit at the table to talk about it. I don’t think the war is at the mooted “turning point” but I do think Putin is in the mood to end this war.

But the E3 list of the five points guarantees the war will continue. That is not diplomacy. That is disguising your desire for war for sale to your population that is being asked to pay for it.

All of the work done at the Moscow meeting on December 3 that brought us very close to a workable deal has been wasted. The Trump administration has now removed itself entirely from the negotiations leaving it to Europe. But Europe is clueless when it comes to ending this war and has in effect committed itself to continuing the conflict for two more years, while its attempts at brokering a ceasefire are reduced to little more than rhetorical flourishes.

At the same time the discussions are continuing on finding an EU frontman to send into talks with Moscow. That's not making any progress either. Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was suggested early on and obviously she would be a great choice, but she ruled herself out. The AfD suggested her again yesterday as I think everybody in Brussels realised that they don't have a viable candidate. Indeed, the whole “debate” over who should go to Moscow is another rhetorical flourish.

If you listen to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s speeches at the moment he is scoffing at all this talk. He said yesterday that Russia is "ready to engage in honest talks free of deception." But also questioned the prospects for negotiations following a new agreement on supplies of EU weapons to Kyiv to strike deep into Russian territory – in other words, the war agenda was the main item on the docket, not a viable ceasefire plan.

“In London, the leaders of the UK, France, and Germany, together with Zelenskiy, signed a document on strategic support for the Kyiv regime and preparations to deploy 'stabilization' forces - or, in other words, occupation forces - to what remains of Ukraine after the conflict. They also agreed to provide Ukraine with additional long-range weapons capable of striking targets deep inside Russia. Against this backdrop, I do not see how anyone can seriously talk about negotiations," Lavrov said. He has a point. Note that Trump has ended military supplies to Ukraine entirely – another plus point for US-led talks with the Kremlin.

In the meantime, people keep dying in horrific numbers and another two years of war will mean another uncountable number of deaths that will wipe out yet another generation of Ukrainians – the point that Iuliia Mendel, Zelenskiy’s former press secretary keeps making. The longer this goes on the chances of the country being able to recover from just the demographic crisis become less and less likely.

I really don't know what to think about these EU proposed Ukrainian ceasefire lists. Europe seems to be drawing up these lists of demands as if they're negotiating from a position of strength, which for me is clearly not the case. As you must be aware the press has been full of stories about “turning points” and the Guardian interviewed Zelenskiy just yesterday where he was arguing that Ukraine is in the strongest position on the battlefield in two and half years. But this is predicated on some minimal gains made by the AFU and the fact that the AFR advances have slowed. But the bottom line is Russia remains armed to the teeth and fully in control of 20% of Ukraine’s territory. Both sides have come to a drone-induced stalemate where neither one can move forward and yet neither one can strike a decisive blow - as amply illustrated inability to take more than a fifth of Ukraine’s territory despite being at least three times the size and with an economy entirely on a war footing.

Given this setup I believe, with many others, continuing the war is pointless. Some sort of deal needs to be done. The precedent of Finland at the end of the Second World War is the most obvious model, unpleasant as that would be. I don't see how Ukraine cannot concede some territory in any ceasefire deal. Even the White House under Biden admitted this from the start of the war.

Territorial concessions have been baked into the Western strategy for the end of the war since the start. The Biden administration said repeatedly over the last four years that its goal was to: “put Ukraine into the best possible negotiation position for the eventual talks to end the war.”

But the attitude coming out of London is still one of “we only need to increase the pressure a little bit more and Russia will collapse.” It is patently wishful thinking. It is tantamount to holding out for a Ukrainian victory in this war. It’s driven by the “something must be done” thinking and the 21st sanctions package is supposed to be ready by the end of this week.

But ask yourself: do you believe that this will be the one that breaks the camel’s back? Will just a few more measures (and a ban on the export of Irish aluminium is not included…) cause Russia to collapse? Still, its adoption will make for good sound bites, eh?