The International Monetary Fund has become the first institution to raise its forecast for Russia’s economic growth in 2026 in anticipation of the windfall it is expected to earn from the effects of the Iran war related spike in energy prices.

Citing higher oil prices during the Iran war, the IMF said Russia’s gross domestic product would expand by 1.1% in 2026, up from a previous estimate of 0.8% in its latest World Economic Outlook. The IMF added that the broader impact on the economy would remain limited. The fund attributed the revision to “favourable oil and gas market conditions”.

The forecast for 2027 was left unchanged at 1.1%.

The IMF is the first major international or Russian institution to revise its outlook upwards in response to the recent surge in energy prices. Other forecasters have remained more cautious, arguing that elevated prices are unlikely to persist, The Bell reported.

The World Bank last week kept its 2026 growth projection at 0.8%, noting that any additional oil and gas revenues would largely be used to cover Russia’s widening budget deficit. The Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) also maintained its estimate of around 1% growth.

Domestic forecasts have yet to converge. Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development continues to project 1.3% growth for 2026, although Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov said on March 31 that the figure would likely be revised down. The central bank has forecast growth in a range of 0.5% to 1.5%, with an update expected on April 24.

Private sector economists have also remained cautious. The Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting raised its estimate to 0.9–1.3% but said the benefits of higher oil prices would be constrained. Analysts at Alfa Bank and Sberbank have not changed their projections. “The strengthening ruble, high borrowing costs, and weak investment activity are holding back the transformation of export revenues into sustainable GDP growth,” Kommersant reported on April 8.

Recent data point to underlying weakness. Russia’s economy contracted by 2.1% in January and by 1.5% in February, suggesting that output may fall into negative territory in the first quarter of 2026.

While the rise in Urals crude prices to about $109 a barrel offers relief for public finances, economists caution against overstating its effect. “Initial resilience, supported by favourable trade conditions and the rapid transition to a war footing, gave way to rising inflation, which links the economy to labour market constraints and production capacity constraints, and to sharp monetary tightening,” the IMF said.

 

Russia growth forecasts
Institution / Source	2026 Forecast (%)	2027 Forecast (%)	Previous 2026 Forecast (%)	Notes
International Monetary Fund (IMF)	1.1	1.1	0.8	Revised up for 2026 due to higher oil prices; 2027 unchanged
World Bank	0.8	Not specified	0.8	No change; expects limited impact from energy prices
BOFIT (Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies)	1	Not specified	1	No change
Russian Ministry of Economic Development	1.3	Not specified	1.3	Not yet updated; likely to be revised down
Central Bank of Russia	0.5–1.5	Not specified	0.5–1.5	Range; update expected on April 24
CMASF (Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and STF)	0.9–1.3	Not specified	0.5–0.8	Revised up slightly
Alfa Bank	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	No change reported
Sberbank	Not specified	Not specified	Not specified	No change reported
source: IntelliNews