As Israel races towards its election on October 27, the future of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears increasingly uncertain. While his ability to form a coalition of at least 61 of the 120 parliamentary seats has been called into question, a new right-wing political party threatens to fracture the Likud party.

For months leading up to the election, former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot has been viewed as Netanyahu’s main rival due to his rising popularity in election polls. Still, he is not a direct threat to the popularity of Netanyahu’s Likud party, given that Eisenkot’s Yashar party appears to be drawing votes from the opposition bloc rather than Likud itself. There is, however, another new party that could take a chunk out of Likud, which is causing Netanyahu plenty of panic. 

This party is Amcha Yisrael, or People of Israel in English, led by IDF reservist Ofer Winter. An Orthodox Jew and father of eight, Winter served as the commander of the elite 98th Paratroopers Division, the covert Duvdevan unit, and the Givati Brigade, which he led into war during Operation Protective Edge, the 2014 Gaza War.

Beyond his regular military activity, Winter ventured into the political realm in 2018, becoming military secretary to the defence minister, serving until 2020 before returning to IDF service.

Following the outbreak of the October 7, 2023 attacks, Winter voluntarily rushed to the front lines, joining Israeli troops in the Kibbutz Beeri area, where 11 militants were killed. He retired from IDF service in May 2024, bringing an end to a military career spanning 34 years.

A decorated soldier who has led some of Israel’s elite units, Winter has built a sterling reputation within military circles and among the broader Israeli public.

Netanyahu appeared to have recognised Winter’s popularity and, according to The Jerusalem Post, offered the IDF veteran a reserve slot on the Likud party list. Winter rejected the offer, having clearly developed a political plan of his own.

On August 25, 2026, Winter launched his new People of Israel party. Branded as a right-wing party, People of Israel appears to be seeking to reverse many of the issues that have plagued the Netanyahu bloc in recent years. While the parties of Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir have been viewed as divisive and even discriminatory by some critics, Winter’s party comes across as more inclusive, seeking to appeal to religious and secular Jewish Israelis, as well as Arabs and other non-Jewish Israelis.

Included at the party is Arab activist and social media influencer Yoseph Haddad, who served in the IDF's Golani Brigade. Haddad has long worked as a pro-Israel advocate and founded the organisation “Together – Vouch for Each Other”, which seeks to integrate Arab citizens into broader Israeli society.

Other notable members include Fleur Hassan-Nahoum, the former deputy mayor of Jerusalem and Israel’s special envoy for trade and innovation, as well as journalist Netali Shem-Tov.

Being more inclusive is not the only way that People of Israel is looking to reverse course from the current governing coalition. The party is advocating for ultra-Orthodox military enlistment, while also supporting what it termed the “voluntary migration” of residents from Gaza.

Netanyahu has recognised the threat that Winter poses not only to himself but to his right-wing partners.

In an interview with Channel 14, Netanyahu warned Winter against running in this election, claiming that he could further split the right-wing vote and even pull Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism party under the electoral threshold.

“I am worried that this [People of Israel] party could do one of two things: either waste votes or cause one of the parties I mentioned to fall,” Netanyahu said, referring to Smotrich’s party and that of Ben-Gvir.

According to The Jerusalem Post, Winter responded to Netanyahu’s claims strongly, stating, “There is only one real possibility for change in the right-wing camp and in general: new people, who were not part of the failures of October 7.” He added that his party is “part of the right-wing camp, but we do not work for anyone, only for the people of Israel.”

Netanyahu’s concerns are echoed in recent election polls. In a Globes poll of polls released on August 30, Ofer Winter’s party would obtain four seats, weakening the Likud party to 23 seats, which sees Netanyahu narrowly trailing behind Eisenkot’s Yashar with 24 seats. Smotrich’s Religious Zionist party would have four seats, narrowly passing the electoral threshold, while Ben-Gvir’s remains stable at eight seats.

Still, certain polls show Winter bringing a far more drastic change. According to an i24NEWS poll released on August 26, soon after the launch of the People of Israel party, Winter’s party would obtain a notable eight seats, pushing Ben-Gvir down to just six seats while Smotrich would remain at four seats. According to that poll, Likud would remain steady at 26 seats, largely unaffected by Winter’s entry.

With a little less than two months to go until the election, People of Israel could produce an election shakeup that sees Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir, and Smotrich lose support at the expense of Winter.

While Winter said that he would support a Netanyahu-led coalition, it remains to be seen whether his party would be willing to work with centrist and right-wing partners in the opposition bloc. Perhaps Winter could be the game-changer who brings together the likes of Netanyahu, Bennett, and even Eisenkot, using his leverage to build a coalition of parties from both sides of the aisle based on broad ideological similarities rather than personality politics centred on Netanyahu.