Uzbekistan’s 1Q gold exports jump to $3.6bn as world prices hit record levels
1 day ago
Ukrai
ne’s banks have hiked interest rates on loans over the last 18 months as they deal with non-performing loans (NPLs) and slow growth. Now a peak seems to have been reached and rates have begun to fall. That opens up space for the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to cut rates at its January 31 meeting, say analysts at Ukraine’s leading investment bank ICU Group.
“UAH loan rates are decreasing after the seasonal liquidity drop at the year end. NBU is signalling it might cut key rate on January 31. A 50 bps reduction is possible,” Mykhaylo Demkiv at ICU said in a tweet.”
NLPs in Ukraine’s banking sector are at circa 50% of all loans, but the banking sector returned to profit in 2018, which allows the banks to finally start getting rid of their bad debt. The result is banks are already starting to cut their lending rates from a crippling 21%-plus, which will be disinflationary.
Rising inflation pressure caused the NBU to hike rates three times last year to the current 18%, despite Ukraine’s desperate need for growth. Inflation fell in the first half of 2018, but ticked up again in the last quarter of the year to end at 10%. Analysts predict that inflation will fall again in the first half of the year to around 8.5%, and as the pressure comes off the NBU is expected to start easing monetary policy this year
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