Poland’s presidential election will go to a second-round run-off after centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski and conservative Karol Nawrocki finished in a close contest in the May 15 first round.

The race was much closer than expected and now the candidates are scrambling to broaden their message and bring in support from outside their traditional circles of support. While Trzaskowski narrowly won the first round he needs to appeal to a much more diverse spectrum of voters to ensure victory in the second round, whereas Nawrocki can appeal to the far-right voters that voted for other candidates which together make up about half of all the votes cast in the first round.

Trzaskowski, deputy leader of the ruling Civic Platform (PO), led with 31.4% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Nawrocki, who is backed by the opposition national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party and received 29.5%.

Voter turnout stood at 67.31%, the highest ever recorded for a first round in a Polish presidential election since the fall of communism, Notes from Poland reported in a drill down of the results.

The detailed exit poll released on election day highlighted deep divisions in the electorate, with younger voters driving support for outsider candidates on both extremes of the political spectrum. Among voters aged 18–29, the far-right Confederation (Konfederacja) candidate Sławomir Mentzen and Adrian Zandberg of the small left-wing Together (Razem) party attracted the most support.

Older voters remained loyal to the traditional duopoly of PiS and PO, which have dominated Polish politics for two decades. The exit poll also indicated a sharp gender divide. Women favoured Trzaskowski and other left-leaning candidates, while men leaned toward conservative and far-right options. Male voters gave a combined 28.4% of their vote to far-right candidates.

The polling data showed that education and the size of voters' villages or towns played a role too. Trzaskowski performed strongest in cities and among voters with higher education, while Nawrocki found most support in smaller municipalities and among those with only primary or vocational education.

Geographic patterns also mirrored long standing electoral trends. Official results show that Nawrocki won the more conservative east of Poland, while Trzaskowski dominated in the liberal-leaning west.

This year the expat vote played a key role, with Trzaskowski the clear frontrunner in countries such as Germany and the United Kingdom. However, Nawrocki led among the Polish diaspora in the United States, where support traditionally tilted more conservative.

The two frontrunners will face each other in a final run-off vote on June 1, with both now seeking to attract supporters of eliminated rivals.

Trzaskowski has already reached out to left-wing candidates Adrian Zandberg and Magdalena Biejat of The Left (Lewica), who together secured about 9% of the vote. Speaking after the exit polls, he pledged to engage with progressive concerns, including reproductive rights, calling Poland’s near-total abortion ban “medieval”.

Nawrocki appealed directly to Mentzen, whose third-place finish at 14.9% marked his party’s strongest-ever national result. “This is not the time to discuss political and partisan issues. This is the time to save Poland,” Nawrocki said on election night night.

Turnout in first round of Poland's presidential election
Year	Voter Turnout (%)
1990	60.6
1995	64.7
2000	61.12
2005	49.74
2010	54.94
2015	48.96
2020	64.51
2025	67.31
Source: PKW via Notes from Poland

 

Exit poll results from 2025 Polish presidential election by age group
Candidate	18–29	30–39	40–49	50–59	60+
Rafał Trzaskowski	34.8%	24.8%	11.2%	7.7%	2.9%
Karol Nawrocki	11%	19.5%	26.9%	36.3%	45.3%
Sławomir Mentzen	13%	21.6%	34.2%	36.8%	42.5%
Grzegorz Braun	5.3%	9.9%	8.6%	6.1%	2.6%
Szymon Hołownia	4.3%	6.9%	7.1%	4.9%	2.4%
Adrian Zandberg	18.7%	5.2%	2.2%	1.6%	0.5%
Magdalena Biejat	5.3%	6.1%	5%	3.5%	1.7%
Source: Ipsos via Notes from Poland

 

Vote breakdown by sex
Candidate	Women	Men
Rafał Trzaskowski	34.1%	28%
Karol Nawrocki	30.8%	28.6%
Sławomir Mentzen	9.8%	19.7%
Magdalena Biejat	5.6%	2.4%
Adrian Zandberg	5.6%	4%
Szymon Hołownia	5.3%	4.4%
Grzegorz Braun	5.1%	7.6%
Source: Ipsos via Notes from Poland

 

Vote breakdown by education level
Candidate	Primary	Vocational	Secondary	Higher
Karol Nawrocki	52.3%	49.2%	29.8%	19.9%
Rafał Trzaskowski	16%	22.1%	28.9%	38.6%
Sławomir Mentzen	12.7%	13.2%	17%	12.8%
Grzegorz Braun	5.6%	7.4%	6.9%	5.3%
Adrian Zandberg	4.7%	5.4%	5.4%	5.7%
Szymon Hołownia	2.5%	3%	4.1%	6.6%
Magdalena Biejat	2.4%	1.7%	3.3%	5.9%
Source: Ipsos via Notes from Poland

 

Vote breakdown by size of municipality
Candidate	Village	Town up to 50,000	51,000–200,000	201,000–500,000	Over 500,000
Karol Nawrocki	38.1%	29.5%	23.9%	18.7%	17.6%
Rafał Trzaskowski	21.7%	33.9%	38%	42.9%	40.7%
Sławomir Mentzen	17.4%	13.6%	13.2%	11.3%	10.8%
Grzegorz Braun	7.7%	6.5%	5.6%	6.6%	3.9%
Szymon Hołownia	4.7%	4.6%	5.2%	6.1%	5.1%
Adrian Zandberg	3.2%	4.3%	4.9%	5.8%	5.1%
Magdalena Biejat	2.9%	3.6%	4.6%	6.8%	6.8%
Source: Ipsos via Notes from Poland

 

Overseas vote breakdown
Candidate	Germany (%)	UK (%)	US (%)	Abroad Total (%)
Rafał Trzaskowski	40.86	35.91	29.98	36.82
Karol Nawrocki	14.55	13.36	42.3	16.07
Sławomir Mentzen	18.63	18.84	7.16	16.58
Grzegorz Braun	9.61	14.45	12.35	11.07
Magdalena Biejat	5.3	5.49	2.21	6.11
Adrian Zandberg	5.22	4.69	2.14	6.47
Szymon Hołownia	3.01	3.55	1.68	3.43
Others	2.82	4.71	3.8	3.45
Source: PKW via Notes from Poland