While a growing number of countries in Central and Southeast Europe have successfully reined in coronavirus infection rates, the spread of the virus has been growing faster in Eastern Europe and Eurasia. 

Data from the World Health Organisation (WHO) show that the number of cases has doubled in just the last four days in Moldova and Uzbekistan. 

^{Number of days for coronavirus cases to double to their level on April 6. Source: World Health Organisation.} 

Nowhere in the region has yet seen as bad an outbreak as West European countries such as Italy and Spain, or — closer to home — Iran or Turkey. The number of cases in Iran has now topped 60,000, while by the end of April 7, Turkey officially had 34,109 recorded coronvirus (COVID-19) infections (up 3,892 on the day) with 725 deaths (up 76 on the day). Some experts fear Turkey’s coronavirus outbreak could be much worse than is painted by the government and might even be “out of control”.

As yet, no country in Central, Southeast or Eastern Europe has reached 10,000 confirmed cases. 

However, in some countries the number of cases is growing fast. As of April 6, it had taken five days or under for the number of cases to double in Azerbaijan, Russia, Serbia and Ukraine. 

While Russia initially reported relatively few coronavirus cases — though there were reports of a suspiciously large number of people hospitalised with pneumonia and other respiratory illnesses in Moscow — the spread of the virus has accelerated recently, with the total number reaching 5,389 on April 6. 

Moscow mayor Sergey Sobyanin responded with a strict lockdown in the Russian capital. Muscovites are only allowed outside to shop (and only at a local store), visit a pharmacy, take the rubbish out and walk pets (but only within 100m of their residence).

But these measures were taken relatively late compared to the efforts in the Central and Southeast European countries with major outbreaks, Czechia, Poland and Romania, and the last few days have seen the number of cases race ahead in Russia. 

^{Growth of confirmed coronavirus cases in Czechia, Poland, Romania and Russia. March 28 - April 6. Source: WHO}

Serbia also introduced strict lockdown measures including a curfew, after seeking advice and support from China. However, they have not so far stemmed the spread of the virus, with 1,908 cases reported as of April 6. 10 days ago Serbia had fewer cases than Slovenia, which had an early outbreak of the virus due to its proximity to northern Italy; by April 6 there were almost twice as many cases in Serbia. 

^{Confirmed coronavirus cases in Slovenia and Serbia. March 28 - April 6. Source: WHO}

Moldova and Ukraine compete for the unenviable title of Europe’s poorest country, and due to the lack of financial resources their healthcare sectors are likely to be less able to cope. Research by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Affairs (wiiw) puts healthcare spending per capita at just $227 in Ukraine and $234 in Moldova, the lowest rates across Central, Southeast and Eastern Europe. For comparison, healthcare spend per capita is almost ten times as high at over $2,000 in the region’s two most prosperous countries, the Czech Republic and Slovenia. 

Unfortunately, both Moldova and Ukraine have seen an acceleration in infections recently, with the total reaching 1,319 in Ukraine and 864 in Moldova as of April 6.

10 days ago, Ukraine had almost the same number of cases as Bulgaria and Slovakia, but since then the latter two countries have managed to curb the spread of the virus, while the number of infections has more than doubled in Ukraine. 

^{Confirmed coronavirus cases in Bulgaria, Slovakia and Ukraine. March 28 - April 6. Source: WHO}

By contrast, a growing number of countries in Central and Southeast Europe have seen the rate of increase of coronavirus cases slow in the last week, and this has at least opened discussions about when restrictions will be lifted. 

In Slovenia, it took 12 days for the number of cases to double to the current 997. A spokesperson for Prime Minister Janez Jansa’s government recently said the lockdown will last for another two to four weeks, but some companies are moving towards getting back to work having introduced new hygiene and social distancing measures, among them caravan maker Adria Mobil and household appliance producer BSH Hisni Aparati. 

In Bulgaria, where it has taken 10 days for the number of cases to double to 351, the government said it will ease restrictions. 

The government in Czechia, which had the CEE region’s worst outbreak with 4,587 cases as of April 6, there has also been talk of lifting restrictions, including by Health Minister Adam Vojtech. “We are clearly saying now that we are able to relatively well manage the pandemic here, it is not the pandemic managing us,” Vojtech told a press conference on April 6.