Russian President Vladimir Putin presented the Trump administration this week with a proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine that will be discussed at a meeting between the two presidents on August 15 in Alaska, but demanded major territorial concessions from Kyiv that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and his European allies have rejected out of hand.

A lot of confusion has emerged over exactly what Putin offered. The proposal was made at a meeting between Putin and Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff last week, but it appears that the Envoy misunderstood what was being offered. Specifically, it appears that Putin called for Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) to withdraw from the Kerson and Zaporizhzhia regions, that form part of a land bridge connecting Russia’s Rostov region to the Crimea peninsula, but Witkoff understood that as Putin was offering to withdraw Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) troops from this region.

At the last meeting between the two men, unusually, Witkoff did not bring his own interpreter, relying on the Kremlin supplied interpreter, which is not usual diplomatic practice. It appears, although it has not been confirmed, that once again Witkoff turned up without a US embassy interpreter. While the Kremlin interpreters are highly skilled professionals, one of the advantages of bringing a US interpreter is that it is possible to refer to their notes after the meeting to check facts and this was not possible following Witkoff’s last meeting with Putin adding to the confusion.

It is also not clear what other items were included in Putin’s deal. Previously, the Kremlin hardened its line and asked for international recognition of its sovereignty over the five regions it controls, including the Crimea.

Confusion over regions

Last November Reuters reported, citing Kremlin sources, there was “limited wiggle room” over where the line of contact could be drawn and it was reported that this time he was also proposing some land swaps. One point that emerged is that Putin demanded that the AFU withdraw from the Donbas region entirely. The AFR took full control of the Luhansk region on July 1, but part of Donetsk, the other region in the Donbas, remains under AFU control, which has also built extensive defences that it would have to cede if Kyiv agrees to the Kremlin’s terms.

Putin told Witkoff he would agree to a complete cease-fire if Ukraine agreed to withdraw forces from all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, according to European officials briefed by Trump by phone after Witkoff returned from Moscow.

Officials who were briefed by the Trump administration on calls after the meeting came away with conflicting impressions about whether Putin intended to freeze the current front lines or eventually pull out of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson entirely.

A US official said Putin called for pausing the war at current lines in both regions. Russia would then negotiate “land swaps” with Ukraine, aiming for full Moscow control of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the Wall Street Journal reports, but no mention was made of what territories Ukraine would receive in return and the four regions mentioned constitute all the territory that the AFR currently occupies.

It appears that the Kremlin has hardened its line again and it was reported that it is pushing for “global recognition” of its territorial claims once again.

Other agenda items

It was reported that Putin was also asking for significant sanctions relief, which Trump conceded to Putin in his seven-point “final offer” peace plan in April that was rejected by Kyiv. No details of which, if any, sanctions should be lifted as part of the mooted deal. However, previously, the Kremlin asked for some financial sanctions to be lifted, especially an end to sanctions on Rosselkhozbank, Russia’s State Agricultural Bank, that handles most of its grain business.

It also appears that Trump remains keen on doing business with Russia. The head of Russia’s sovereign wealth fund Russia Direct Investment Fund (RDIF), Kirill Dmitriev, participated in the Witkoff meeting and said at the start of the ceasefire talks in February that he was conducting business negotiations in a “parallel track” with the Americans. Dmitriev and Witkoff have met on many occasions and both men have extensive experience of doing business in the Middle East.

Previously, Putin has suggested that the US and Russia could cooperate in the oil and gas business. Putin has also pointed out that Russia has the second largest reserves of critical and rare earth metals (REMs) after China, a strategic assets that must be very appealing to Trump who is being held over the barrel by Beijing in the tariff trade talks, which has a virtual monopoly over these minerals that are vital to technology. Putin offered Trump joint ventures to exploit REMs in February and also ordered the government to prepare the way for foreign companies to return to the Russian market in April.

There was no mention of any business negotiations, if any, in what information was shared after the meetings, however, Trump has shown himself to be very interested in mineral exploitation, having already forced a minerals deal on Ukraine, signed on April 30

Importantly, the suggestion of a meeting in Alaska means that Trump let his August 8 deadline to impose 100% tariffs and sanctions on Russia and its oil customers pass without action. While the Trump administration did impose a new 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil, he also delayed its implementation by 21 days giving Washington and New Delhi time to continue trade negotiations to reduce the tariff. Notably, China has also escaped the deadline to cut its oil imports from Russia or face 100% tariffs completely and no new tariffs will be imposed on Beijing. Both China and India have said publicly they will not bow to pressure from the White House and will not cut their imports of Russian crude. Since taking office, Trump has imposed no new sanctions on Russia whatsoever, and Russia was assigned 0% tariffs in his Liberation Day tariff announcement. Trump’s critics complain that the US president has exerted no pressure on the Kremlin at all since taking the helm in January with a promise to rapidly bring the Ukraine war to an end.

Ukrainian reaction

The new deal appears to be very similar to Trump’s final offer presented to Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) in London in April.

Then, as now, Zelenskiy has dismissed the idea of conceding any territory to Russia, pointing to the Ukrainian constitution which makes it impossible. And then, as now, Zelenskiy has called for an unconditional ceasefire as part of his counteroffer in April as a prerequisite to the start of any negotiations. Once again, the two sides seem far apart with little common ground on which to base talks. Zelenskiy, and his European allies, are also insisting again that the Ukrainian president attend any talks between Russia and the US.

“Any decisions that are without Ukraine, are at the same time decisions against peace. They will not achieve anything,” Zelenskiy said in a post on X.

European officials expressed serious reservations about Putin’s proposal, which would require that Ukraine hand over eastern Ukraine, without Russia’s committing to much other than to stop fighting. The offer set off the same diplomatic scramble to obtain further clarity on details of the proposal, which remain vague. Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has commented on the proposal to include Zelenskiy in the talks in Alaska.

European and Ukrainian officials, who were briefed by Trump and Witkoff in a series of calls last week, say they are afraid that Putin is using his proposal simply as a ruse to forestall Trump’s threat of new sanctions and tariffs on Russia’s oil business.

Trump has also played down expectations, saying Putin's proposal was not a “breakthrough”, but was “enticing enough to begin organizing the summit meeting.”

According to Witkoff speaking to European leaders, Putin proposed two phases. In the first phase, Ukraine would withdraw from Donetsk and the battle lines would be frozen. That would be followed by a second phase, in which Putin and Trump would agree on a final peace plan that would later be negotiated with Zelenskiy, European officials report.

“Out of respect for our sensitive diplomatic discussions with Russia, Ukraine, and our European allies, the White House won’t comment on alleged details in the news media,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at a briefing over the weekend.

New deal elements

A few new details have entered the discussion. One concession Putin seems to have made is he has dropped an early insistence that Ukraine reduce the size of its armed forces, that was a central demand, agreed at the 2022 Istanbul peace deal. That would be a major concession, but was always going to be unworkable, as demonstrated by the peace deal signed by Finland following its WWII war with Russia.

For his part, Zelenskiy has said that any ceasefire deal with Russia has to include “ironclad” security guarantees from Russia, and include the Kremlin’s acknowledgement that Ukraine could eventually join Nato.

That will be hard for the Kremlin to swallow as it has insisted from the start that the West also provide “ironclad guarantees” that Ukraine will never join Nato and return to the neutrality that was enshrined in its constitution until 2014. Indeed, it was the US refusal to provide these ironclad guarantees that triggered Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine in February 2022.

Since then Nato has made it clear that it has no intention of allowing Ukraine to join Nato. Indeed, during the peace talks in March 2022 Kyiv even agreed to abandon its Nato aspirations and return to neutrality, but Bankova’s position on Nato has hardened again since then. Zelenskiy put accelerated Nato membership at the core of his Victory plan that he touted around Western capitals over Christmas.

Security guarantees were also central to the 2022 Istanbul deal as Kyiv assumed its Western allies would not allow it into Nato, but would provide Ukraine with bilateral security deals – something the Kremlin accepted at the time. However, the deal fell to pieces a few days later when former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson flew to Kyiv and told Zelenskiy no security deals would be forthcoming and to “fight on.”

Trump has pointedly said that the US will not be involved in any security deals for Ukraine and also opted out of the European suggestion to send a peacekeepers force to patrol the line of contact if a ceasefire deal were to be agreed. Since then the whole idea of peacekeepers has been abandoned by Europe as unworkable.

Another factor in play is Putin’s offer may be designed to pressure Zelenskiy at home. A recent poll found that as many as 70% of Ukrainians want a negotiated settlement to end the war. However, other polls say the population is also strongly against giving away any territory in a possible peace deal.

Zelenskiy has also been accused of showing increasingly authoritarian methods and faced the first anti-government protests over a law that guts Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms on July 22. The wartime hero is now trailing in the polls to former commander-in-chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi also reshuffled his government last month to tighten his grip on power in anticipation of unrest should be forced to negotiate an unfavourable ceasefire with Russia, say analysts.

In the meantime, Russia continues its missile war that started with a devastating missile barrage on Kyiv and other cities in May. Ukraine is running desperately low air defence ammunition, which Trump refuses to supply Ukraine with from the US stockpile and Europe is unable to supply until next spring at the earliest.