Malawians started voting on September 16 at 04:00 GMT in an election pitting two former presidents against an incumbent seeking his second successive and final term in office.

About 7.2mn people are eligible to cast their ballots, also for 229 parliamentarians and more than 500 councillors, in the generally poor southern African country of 22mn. 

Seventeen candidates are in the running to be head of state. They include the current president, Lazarus Chakwera (70); his immediate predecessor, Peter Mutharika (85); and Joyce Banda (75), who served the last two years of Mutharika's elder brother Bingu's term between 2012 and 2014. 

It appears to be a two-horse race. A poll in August by local think tank IPOR Malawi places Mutharika ahead with 41% support, followed by Chakwera at around 31%, with smaller shares for other candidates.

If no candidate secures 50% plus one vote, as widely expected, the top two candidates will compete in a second-round run-off. Results from the first round are expected a week after polls close.

Malawi’s presidential race may echo the anti-incumbent wave that unseated five African leaders in 2024. The poll comes amid a severe economic crisis, foreign currency and fuel shortages, and high inflation. 

"Malawi's agriculture-based economy is in deep trouble, partly because of a series of climate shocks like cyclones and drought," the Associated Press wrote on September 15.

"Inflation has risen from around 8% to 27% during Chakwera's term. Everyday food items, like the staple corn, are unaffordable for many in the landlocked country of around 21mn people, wedged between Tanzania, Zambia and Mozambique. 

"A critical shortage of fuel has also meant that queues at gas stations, a part of life now, may be longer than the queues at ballot stations on election day."

Peter Mutharika, a University of London law alumnus, was initially elected in 2014 and reelected five years later. But the country's top court annulled the poll over irregularities that, among others, involved the usage of correctional fluid to fraudulently alter ballot choices to his favour. 

Chakwera, a theology graduate from the Trinity International University in the US, promising to create 1mn jobs, an economic renewal and corruption-free governance, won the rematch held in 2020 with 59% of the valid vote. 

However, inflation has been rising across his reign, and the jobs he promised have not materialised, according to The East African on September 16.

“Voters are increasingly willing to punish leaders who fail to deliver tangible improvements in living standards, regardless of external circumstances,” it cited Ghanaian academic Richard Kweitsu as writing on his blog.

“For Chakwera, the irony is palpable: he now represents the establishment he once challenged.”

The Institute of Public Opinion and Research released survey results in July saying none of the presidential candidates will win the poll in the first round.  It forecast that Peter Mutharika will win 43% of the ballot, with Chakwera securing 26%.

"We're dealing with an election where the people are so tired and so uninspired... I think a big question is, are they going to bother to vote?" said Louw Nel, Senior Political Analyst at Oxford Economics Africa, according to Reuters on September 16.