São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas' apparent step back from presidential ambitions has reshaped Brazil's 2026 electoral landscape, simultaneously alarming President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's leftist allies and rekindling hopes among alternative right-wing candidates previously dismissed as backup options.

A potential ticket pairing De Freitas with former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro as vice-president, reportedly receiving Jair Bolsonaro's blessing, is viewed by Lula’s Workers Party (PT) allies as a competitive threat to Lula's re-election prospects, Folha de São Paulo reported. Such a tandem could theoretically unite São Paulo's business community and centrist voters via De Freitas with radical Bolsonarism's core supporters through Michelle.

Yet significant uncertainties persist, chiefly the governor's reluctance to abandon a virtually assured state-level re-election for a far riskier national contest. In recent weeks, politicians from his camp have circulated rumours linking his retreat to Lula's rising popularity and successive right-wing missteps, according to Estadão.

The biggest blunder came from the former president's son and congressman Eduardo Bolsonaro, who currently resides in the US and openly advocated for Donald Trump's tariff increases over what the White House branded a "political witch hunt" against his father. Rural parties from the conservative bloc compounded matters by supporting a controversial bill to shield parliamentarians from prosecution, subsequently shelved after drawing thousands of street protesters.

De Freitas' aides reject this interpretation, insisting he would prioritise state re-election because unfinished São Paulo work makes reappointment safer than risking a presidential bid. During meetings with Bolsonaro last week, he expressed interest in remaining governor, according to sources.

The confusion has deepened after the ex-president floated Michelle as De Freitas' running mate, only to backtrack days later, stating she would instead contest a Federal District Senate seat. Those close to De Freitas say only a direct Bolsonaro request could alter his calculations. But even then, party colleagues believe the former infrastructure minister would carefully weigh succession risks in São Paulo, with polls showing vice-president Geraldo Alckmin competitive in his absence.

Alternative candidates sense an opening

De Freitas' ambiguity has breathed new life into the campaigns of Paraná governor Ratinho Júnior, Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado and Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema, who previously felt overshadowed as backup plans for the conservative camp.

"What's the problem with names like Zema, Ratinho, etc? They're candidates positioned as plan B. If Tarcísio doesn't make it, they're candidates. This also devalues them in the eyes of the electorate," said political scientist Antônio Lavareda, as quoted by Estadão.

Centrão party leaders privately believe Ratinho Júnior presents the strongest alternative, polling similarly to De Freitas in run-off simulations. The latest Genial/Quaest survey showed De Freitas at 35% against Lula's 43%, while Ratinho registered 34% to 44%

Ratinho enjoys crucial support from PSD president Gilberto Kassab, who also serves as De Freitas' government secretary. Kassab has lobbied for De Freitas to pursue state re-election, positioning himself as running mate to eventually assume the governorship, an arrangement De Freitas has rejected. Recently, Kassab has intensified his backing of Ratinho's presidential ambitions, gathering São Paulo businesspeople to reinforce the Paraná native as his candidate.

Ratinho holds another advantage: despite not being a staunch Bolsonaro supporter, he maintains positive relations with the group and ex-president, unlike Caiado, whose relationship with the far-right leader has soured. Caiado insists he will run regardless, but faces resistance within his own party. Even his gestures towards Bolsonarism, such as declaring amnesty his first governmental act, leave colleagues doubtful of securing the group's support.

"There's a feeling among these rightwing figures that any of them could beat Lula and win. They all say that, even if they finish behind the PT candidate in the first round, unity would guarantee second-round victory, especially given the president's high rejection rate," said political consultant Creomar de Souza, as quoted by Estadão.

The amnesty question

De Freitas publicly champions amnesty benefiting Bolsonaro but privately admits the difficulties of advancing such proposals, according to an opinion column by Bela Megale published by O Globo. While he presents amnesty as "pacifying the country", he privately assesses that achievable goals involve "mitigating as much as possible" Bolsonaro's situation — attempting, for example, to prevent incarceration in a common prison.

To confidants, he frames remaining options as "political solutions" via the National Congress: debating sentence lengths and reducing prison time for the ex-president sentenced to 27 years in a closed regime over his attempted coup following the 2022 election.

"De Freitas knows, however, that admitting to the public any solution other than a broad and unrestricted amnesty would be a shot in the foot, especially since Jair Bolsonaro himself still believes that this measure can prosper, despite all the signs that this is unlikely to happen," said the columnist.

"The governor has made clear he does not intend to engage in further discussions on the issue. De Freitas has met with political leaders in Brasília and São Paulo but has said that the ball now needs to be taken up by Congress."

For all the right-wing turbulence, meanwhile, Lula's allies believe the president holds pole position, with his firm stance against Trump bolstering support and income tax exemptions for those earning up to R$5,000 ($940) monthly due to take effect during the election year.