President Vladimir Putin on October 9 called on the leaders of the five states of Central Asia to expand their trade with Russia.

Speaking on the second day of his three-day visit to Tajikistan, where he has flown for a state visit and meetings with the presidents of Central Asia and other CIS leaders, the Russian leader was clearly only too aware that Russia is now very much second to China in commerce across the region. Distracted by its war in Ukraine, Moscow has suffered economic and political setbacks in its ties with the five countries of post-Soviet Central Asia, with China, Europe, the US and other powers making new inroads in the region. Tajikistan in the summer became the latest and last of the Central Asian countries to see China overtake Russia to become its main trade partner.

Russia's trade turnover last year with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan amounted to around $45bn. Putin was quoted by Reuters as saying at a summit in the Tajik capital Dushanbe that that was a "good result" but well short of Russia’s level of bilateral trade with Belarus, which has just a fraction of the combined population of the Central Asian countries. There was therefore good potential for growth in trade, added Putin.

Reuters also wrote that “a bland joint communique from the summit said the Central Asian states ‘noted the importance of further strengthening their strategic partnership with Russia’”.

The statement added that the leaders agreed that they would work on forming new transport and logistics corridors, while they would also cooperate in fighting terrorism, illegal migration and drugs. Improving trade payment and settlement systems was also given as a common objective to be further addressed.

Russia and Tajikistan, meanwhile, signed an Investment Agreement between the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan and the Consortium of the BTK Group of Companies on the implementation of a project to create a light industry cluster of the Russian BTK Group of Companies in Tajikistan.

BTK Group began operating in Tajikistan in 2022.

In October of that year, Radio Ozodi published an investigation that told how BTK leased approximately 5,500 hectares of land in Tajikistan over two years, invested in two textile factories and established a supply chain for the export of clothing made at the manufacturing facilities for Russian troops fighting in the war in Ukraine.

BTK Group's founder is Taimuraz Bolloev. He was sanctioned by the European Union in June 2024 for having " close ties to decision-makers in Russia."

In March last year, there was a seminal moment in relations between Russia and Tajikistan and in the approach taken by Russian authorities towards Russia’s millions of Central Asian work migrants – the Islamist terrorist attack on the Crocus City Hall concert venue in outer Moscow, allegedly conducted by four Tajik gunmen, claimed more than 140 lives and sparked what has become an increasingly tough crackdown on Central Asian workers and their families in Russia.

Russia remains concerned about radicalisation and recruitment campaigns run by jihadist terrorist groups in Afghanistan, which has a substantial border with Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. Stopping the infiltration of such radicalised individuals from Central Asia into Russia is one priority for those running the crackdown on work migrants in the country.

A consideration for Tajikistan and leader of more than three decades Rahmon is that if hundreds of thousands of newly jobless Tajik men were to be forced out of Russia and back to Tajikistan, their discontent could be a threat to the ruling regime, especially if a substantial number were to become radicalised by groups such as Afghanistan-based Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP, or ISIS-K).

Tajikistan is home to a Russian military base – nowadays Russia’s largest foreign military base – which plays an important role in securing the Tajik-Afghanistan border. On the second day of his visit to Dushanbe, Putin drew attention to how “the 201st Russian military base stationed in the republic is also a guarantor of security in Tajikistan and throughout the region”. He described Tajikistan as a “reliable ally”.

According to Tajik daily Asia-Plus, the base includes reconnaissance, radiation, chemical, and biological defence forces, along with communications, motorised rifle, tank, artillery and air defence units.