Ukraine’s spectacular Operation Spiderweb drone strikes on Russian strategic bombers on June 1 will harden, not soften, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s resolve to continue fighting in Ukraine, says Tatiana Stanovaya, the founder and CEO of R.Politik and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

The attack, which came out of left field, was cheered by Ukraine’ supporters of proof that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has “cards” after all, following the browbeating he received from US President Donald Trump during a meeting in the Oval office that descended into a shouting match on February 28.

The operation was viewed as evidence that Kyiv still has military and political leverage and can do significant harm to Russia’s military power. But Stanovaya said that based on years of studying Putin, “I believe this interpretation misjudges the likely impact.”

“Many in Western audiences view Ukraine’s attacks on Russian strategic forces as a move that strengthens Kyiv’s negotiating position,” she wrote in a post on social media. “These strikes demonstrate to Russia that Ukraine has capabilities previously thought unimaginable, and signal to the West that Ukraine retains ‘cards’ with which to continue the fight. The idea is that the Kremlin—as a collective decision-making entity—will gradually be compelled to concede.”

However, this logic fails to account for how Putin’s Russia absorbs and reacts to such pressure. The effect of Ukrainian strikes will not be to induce flexibility or retreat, but rather to entrench hardline attitudes further.

“Based on years—now decades—of observing Putin’s decision-making, I believe such attacks will only reinforce his determination to dismantle the Ukrainian state in its current form,” Stanovaya wrote. “He will respond by becoming more hardline and less compliant.”

The perception within Moscow’s leadership is not that Ukraine is gaining the upper hand, but that its alignment with the West represents a fundamental and enduring threat.

“The perception that Ukraine’s geopolitical orientation poses a long-term existential threat will harden, and his resolve to make it ‘friendly’ will intensify, regardless of the cost,” said Stanovaya.

This feeds into a broader concern about the West’s credibility in the eyes of the Kremlin. Despite extensive weapons deliveries, long-range strike authorisations last November by the Biden administration and more recently reaffirmed by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, as well as the substantial financial aid packages, “Moscow does not believe the West has the political or military will to decisively alter the course of the war,” says Stanovaya. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen admitted as much during her ReArm Europe speech in March, admitting that Europe lacks the military production capacity to match Russia’s. (video).

“The West’s greatest weakness in facing a desperate and confrontational Russia lies in its credibility,” she argues. “The Russian leadership sees no plausible way in which the West can ‘win’ the war.” These actions “do not convince Moscow that the West can reverse the situation on the battlefield. It will not change Putin’s calculus, incite a palace coup, or spark a popular revolution.”

On the contrary, the Kremlin interprets these efforts as vindication of its narrative and a justification for further mobilisation. “The current policies reinforce anti-Western, anti-Ukrainian, and pro-state sentiment in Russia,” Stanovaya argues.

This does not mean support for Ukraine should be withdrawn, nor that Ukraine’s right to self-defence is in question. But it does suggest that the consequences of the current strategy may be more destabilising than anticipated.

“Putin’s Russia is now even more prepared to fight indefinitely, and increasingly convinced that it is winning and possesses the necessary resources to continue not only through 2025 but well into 2026 and beyond,” Stanovaya wrote. “Moreover, there remains considerable scope for further radicalisation and escalation.”

Putin has put the entire Russian economy on a war footing shortly after the start of the war and it is currently out producing the EU, US and Ukraine combined, producing 300 long-range missiles a day – more than it fires – amongst other things, say military analysts. It has also overtaken Ukraine in the key metric of drone production with China’s help.

Stanovaya’s conclusion is stark: “Striking at Russia’s vulnerable points without sufficient military agency to defend and secure Ukraine is a course of action that may carry consequences many currently underestimate.”