Changes in Belarusian budget deficit, inflation expectations, oil transit rates and external public debt

Changes in Belarusian budget deficit, inflation expectations, oil transit rates and external public debt
Current bank notes for the Belarusian Ruble / manorfx.com
By bne IntelliNews February 1, 2022

Belarusian authorities have released official numbers on the country's budget deficit, external public debt, its changed inflation expectations and changes in oil transits by pipeline, reported state Belarusian news agency BelTA.

Belarus' central state budget ended the year 2021 with a deficit totalling BYN600mn ($232mn). The public administration sector's budget ended the year with a deficit of BYN900mn, while the Social Security Fund's budget achieved a surplus of BYN400mn.

As of January 1 this year, Belarus' public debt amounted to nearly $22.5bn, its external public debt totalled $18.2bn and internal public debt amounted to nearly $4.35bn. In 2021, Belarus' government borrowed close to $1.3bn and spent close to $1.6bn on repaying external public debt.

During 2021, Belarus' government sold domestic government bonds denominated in foreign currencies worth $1.2bn and bonds denominated in the national currency for BYN191mn ($73.7mn) to individuals and corporations.

It also redeemed $333.1mn worth of government bonds denominated in foreign currencies, and BYN145mn ($56mn) denominated in the national currency from corporations and individuals.

The head of Belarus National Bank (NBRB), Pavel Kallaur, gave a statement on the NBRB's inflation expectations for 2022. According to Kallaur, the current high inflation rate is caused by imported inflation, since many countries around the world are presently experiencing it.

Kallaur said that Belarus' inflation would plateau in Q1 2022. However, he pointed out that while several central banks around the world would "stiffen their measures", the effects of these would have a certain lag. The NBRB therefore expected to reach its inflation target of 6% for 2022 by the end of the year.

Today, the rates on oil transit via the Gomeltranseft Druzhba pipeline in Belarus increased by 7.4%. The increase comes following a decree passed by Belarus' Ministry for Antimonopoly Regulation and Trade two weeks ago. The decree provides that the increase in oil transit rates within Belarus will not exceed the projected industrial producer price index for Belarus of 2022.

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