The latest poll conducted by CFA Society Romania among its members in December revealed a slightly more optimistic sentiment reflected in a higher macroeconomic confidence index: 57.6 points, 1 point up from November.
The estimate for last year’s economic growth was maintained at 6.6% and the average projection for this year is much lower, 4.3% on average — not far from the 4.6% assumed under the official macroeconomic scenario.
CFA analysts estimate a 7.0%-of-GDP deficit for 2021 and expect moderate fiscal consolidation to 5.7% of GDP this year. The figures are marginally lower compared to the official scenario.
The public deficit for 2021, to be released in the coming days, was estimated by the government under the latest revision at 7.16% of GDP, but it could potentially fall under 7% of GDP given the January-November data (4.7%-of-GDP deficit).
The government’s budget for 2022 envisages a 5.84%-of-GDP deficit.
Even assuming lower-than planned deficits, CFA analysts expect the public debt-to-GDP ratio to increase to 52.5% at the end of the year, up from 48.2% at the end of October (latest data available).
As regards inflation, it is seen at 6.06% over the next 12 months, compared to 5.9% projected by the National Bank of Romania (BNR) at 5.9% in 2022.
But the uncertainty is high and so is the dispersion of the individual projections of the analysts.
On average, the CFA Society’s members expect an exchange rate of just under RON5.09 to the euro after 12 months, compared to RON5.11 projected for the same time horizon in the previous survey.