There is a feeling of uncertainty in Moldova’s capital Chisinau ahead of the September 28 parliamentary election that is set to determine the country's future direction between European integration and closer ties with Russia.

In a popular café in the city centre, four young students sit around plates of food and drinks. All are part of Moldova's vast student diaspora, the million-plus citizens who have left their homeland for opportunities abroad.

"Things are different this year because of the coalition," says Cornelia Micleusanu, 20, who left Chisinau to study in Romania, referring to the Patriotic Bloc, a new coalition of pro-Russian parties formed in late August.

"Now we see one side trying to hold on and the other joining together to create a parliamentary majority," she explains, her friends nodding in agreement. "It's going to be scary – a real battle."

The frontrunners are the pro-European Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), founded by President Maia Sandu, and the Patriotic Bloc. The PAS sees Moldova's future in the European Union, with officials hoping the country could join as early as 2028. Meanwhile the Patriotic Bloc emphasises Moldova's neutrality and sovereignty, presenting EU integration as a threat to national independence, and instead favouring closer relations with Moscow and membership of Russia's Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).

If the PAS loses its majority, Moldova's EU membership drive faces serious jeopardy. Public opinion is razor-thin: a recent poll by Reuters shows the PAS and the Patriotic Bloc are almost even. A turn toward Moscow wouldn't just be symbolic – it would make Moldova a possible conduit for Russian influence in the region, particularly via the breakaway Transnistria region. This would potentially open a geopolitical front with implications for both the war in neighbouring Ukraine and the broader power struggle between the EU and Russia.

When pressed on their predictions, the group exchange glances before Victoria Dosca, 20, who is studying in Italy, takes a guess: "51% to 49%" – with PAS narrowly winning.

The problem, Micleusanu argues, is that Moldovans often vote against what they oppose rather than for a clear vision. "Everybody sees the vote as choosing the best of the worst," she says. "But we have to change what's not working, and we do that by improving the political class, not by choosing the other side just because one did not do the things that we wanted them to."

Diaspora vote

The diaspora's influence has become a controversial issue since last year's referendum on including Moldova’s commitment to EU accession in the constitution. Overseas votes played a significant role in securing a ‘yes’ vote. As a result, Dosca says, resentment grew toward those who left.

"Suddenly there was this fight," she says. “‘Look at the diaspora – the people who left are deciding our country's future.’ But come on, we left for a reason. We've seen how life can be elsewhere, and we want the same for our homeland." 

Financial insecurity, limited opportunities and a hunger for broader horizons drove them abroad. Yet all agree they would return to Moldova if their prospects looked better. Moldova's economy experienced just 0.1% growth in 2024 amid an energy crisis, with inflation still high at 7.3% in August 2025. People also complain the influx of Ukrainian refugees to Chisinau have pushed up rental prices. 

"I live in hope that, one day, I'll come back and feel secure about my country and my place in it," says Mariana Musteata, 20, who is studying in Romania.

A neutral Moldova 

Gathered in the amphitheatre of Chisinau's Cathedral Park beneath a canopy of red flags, the leaders of the Patriotic Bloc assembled to address a several hundred strong crowd on September 25. Supporters held a banner reading; “The people decide the fate of the country”.

19-year-old Alexei Haritonov, deputy chairman of the Young Guard in Moldova, a youth wing of the socialist party now aligned with the Patriotic Bloc, was present at the demonstration. 

Speaking to bne IntelliNews, Haritonov says that the Patriotic Bloc is not about choosing beneath a Russian or European pathway. 

“We are for great communication and cooperation with all countries. First of all, with our neighbours, Romania and Ukraine. Second of all, with the European Union, Russia and China.” 

When asked if he thinks neutrality is possible, Haritonov responds: “Of course. We have it guaranteed in our constitution… it’s not about supporting one side or the other. We want to cooperate. We want projects. We want cultural exchange.”  

Haritonov rejects the notion that the Patriotic Bloc is altogether opposed to joining the EU, and instead says his party is about preserving traditional values. He also says that he believes the results of the 2024 referendum were false. 

“If our path is with the European Union, it will be decided by our people, by elections, clear elections, without any misunderstanding or penetrations from the other countries.” 

Haritonov also rejects the possibility that, should the Patriotic Bloc secure a majority, Russian forces would use Moldova to open a second front in Ukraine or to enter Romania. 

“It’s not possible,” says Haritonov. “Our neutrality is our guarantee.”

Ambivalence in Chisinau 

There are others in Chisinau who feel more ambivalent about Sunday's vote.

Andrey Trager, 25, is originally from Transnistria, a self-proclaimed republic with strong ties to Moscow, where Russian troops have been stationed since the 1990s.

Trager now lives and works in Chisinau. He's happy to be out of Transnistria, a place where he says there are no opportunities. The economy has been brought to its knees after Russia halted its long-standing practice of supplying free natural gas.

Although he has felt strongly disenchanted by Russian politics since the invasion of Ukraine, Trager doesn't see much hope in the pro-EU parties either.

"I feel that these parties are so far from the real situation in the world, and all these promises from both sides, for me, look so abstract," he says. "None of them have a clear political programme, none of them have an economic programme that accords to my personal views.

"Both sides are in this electoral conflict and are absolutely not about democracy, absolutely not about freedom. They are just trying to grab a piece of the country and grab resources in general. From my point of view, there is no big difference between them. For me, what's much more important is: how many possibilities do young people have? How many possibilities do artists have?"

Trager says he won't be voting on September 28, an opinion commonly held in polarised Moldova. Some people say they want independence and don't see either party offering that. Others simply feel that Moldova's small size and level of corruption make the process pointless.

Election fraud 

Russian interference in Moldova's elections through vote-buying, intimidation, propaganda and fraud is well-documented. Moldovan authorities have been dismantling Russian-financed groups preparing to organise civil unrest during the September 28 elections, with 74 people arrested in recent raids.

This year, the government has uncovered evidence of orchestrated Russian interference, disinformation campaigns, vote-buying and efforts to incite unrest aimed at weakening the pro-EU side. Moldova is particularly vulnerable because the Trump administration has slashed at least $50mn in USAID programmes once designed to strengthen Moldova's democratic processes and counter Russian disinformation.

Musteata believes she was targeted by a misinformation campaign. She received a phone call from someone who claimed to be from an official statistics centre surveying opinions. She was then asked a series of questions that Musteata believes were designed to provoke her.

"'What do you believe about the fact that if we enter the European Union, they will make us put into force a law that allows children to change sex?'" she recalls the pollster asking. "Would you still opt for integration?"

Anti-EU sentiment in Gagauzia 

In Gagauzia, Moldova's autonomous region in the south, anti-EU sentiment runs deep. The Gagauz are a Turkic-speaking Orthodox Christian minority with cultural and economic ties to Turkey, yet the region was heavily Russified during the Soviet era and today maintains strong loyalties to Moscow. Most schools teach in Russian rather than Romanian, and residents largely consume Russian media.

The region has been significantly influenced by fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, who has funneled money through his network to support pro-Russian candidates, including current governor Evghenia Guțul. She was sentenced to seven years in prison in August 2025 for channeling illegal Russian funds to finance Shor's political activities.

In the 2024 EU referendum, Gagauzia voted overwhelmingly against, with 94.84% rejecting the motion. A walk through Comrat, the dusty capital, reveals a jumble of contradictions. There is a statue of Lenin in the centre, but also a poster for an EU orchestra playing at the town's House of Culture. Travel agencies offer trips to Europe. Teenagers play R.E.M. in a coffee shop.

At the Turkish library, bne IntelliNews met with high school students Xenia Gradinar, 17, and Irina Sherban, 18.

Despite the heavy Russian influence, the pair believe they have better chances with the EU and say attitudes are changing.

"We want more than older people. They are used to stability, but we want something crazy. We want something new. And Europe is a good opportunity for it," says Gradinar.

"Some of my classmates still support Russia, and they want to unite with Russia." When asked what they think the difference was between them and their classmates, the pair pause.

"I think they think like their parents, and this is the biggest problem. They don't realise what the European Union is and what opportunities it can give us, because Russia has helped us so many times. They consider Russia to be our mum and dad."

Russia maintains its ties with Gagauzia in multiple ways. Students can study at Russian universities tuition-free, although the appeal has waned as degrees obtained there face limited recognition abroad due to sanctions. Many Gagauz residents migrate to Russia for work, sending remittances home. Moscow has also funded schools, cultural centres, sports facilities and Orthodox churches in the region.

But Gradinar and Sherban believe mentalities are beginning to shift, a process accelerating as people gain access to European opportunities.

"My dad is a bit afraid of Europe, but he also recognises the new job opportunities. Day by day, he is becoming closer to the idea of the European Union. But in the past, he wanted to unite with Russia," says Sherban. "He sees that something is changing, that Russia is becoming truly aggressive."

Back in Chisinau, the group of young students also weigh in on the state of democracy in Moldova. 

When asked how confident she feels in Moldova's democracy, Micleusanu answers: "I think that we're at our most democratic since independence. It's not perfect… we still have a lot of problems, a lot of corruption. But if we compare how we are now to 1991, we are a lot better."