Pakistan is grappling with the most severe flooding in over four decades in parts of Punjab, its agricultural heartland, with far-reaching consequences for food production, rural livelihoods, and the country’s export earnings. A new assessment by the Group on Earth Observations Global Agricultural Monitoring Initiative (GEOGLAM) finds that extensive losses to rice, maize, cotton and livestock, coupled with disruptions to upcoming wheat planting, will weigh heavily on farmers and food markets in the coming months.

Since late June, relentless monsoon rains and water releases from upstream dams in India have combined to inundate vast tracts of eastern Pakistan. Punjab has borne the brunt, with 2.9mn people evacuated and entire riverine communities displaced. Districts including Lahore, Sialkot and Gujrat experienced record water levels as the Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej rivers overflowed simultaneously. Further downstream, floodwaters have surged into Sindh, prompting evacuations of at least 150,000 people and raising the spectre of a “super flood” along the Indus.

Although floodwaters have begun to recede in parts of Punjab, large areas remain waterlogged. Damage to homes, infrastructure, livestock and food stocks is widespread, compounding hardship just two years after the catastrophic 2022 monsoon floods.

Crops under water

The timing of the floods has been particularly damaging for Kharif crops. Satellite analysis shows around 220,000 hectares of rice submerged between August 1 and September 16, mainly in Punjab’s Sialkot and Narowal districts. With Punjab accounting for over 65% of national rice output, losses will hit both rural incomes and export earnings, particularly in the premium Basmati segment.

The flooding struck as rice moved through critical growth stages such as flowering and grain filling, amplifying yield losses. While some crop recovery is visible as waters recede, the overall seasonal damage is likely to exceed estimates, given earlier submergence in June and July when replanting was not always possible.

Other crops have also suffered. Maize fields, vital for poultry feed, have been destroyed, while cotton, sugarcane, vegetables and orchards were left standing in floodwaters. With Punjab and Sindh together producing the bulk of maize and cotton, the economic toll is expected to ripple across value chains.

Attention is now turning to the upcoming Rabi season, which begins in late September with wheat sowing. Wheat is Pakistan’s staple, providing up to 70% of caloric intake, and Punjab produces over three-quarters of the crop. The floods have destroyed irrigation channels, delayed land preparation and washed away seed stocks, leaving many farmers ill-equipped for timely planting.

While wheat reserves from the 2024/25 harvest remain adequate—helped by a crop that was 5% above average—the concern is that disruptions to the 2025/26 season could tighten supply later in the year. Markets are already jittery. Wheat and flour prices in major cities surged by as much as 40% after storage facilities in Punjab were damaged. The provincial government has responded with a temporary ban on diverting wheat to feed mills, aimed at preserving household supplies.

Food security pressures

The floods have struck at a time when Pakistan was showing tentative improvement in food security. According to pre-flood analysis, around 10mn people faced acute food insecurity between April and July 2025, down from 11mn earlier in the year. GEOGLAM now warns of renewed pressures, particularly in rural areas where 60% of the population depends on agriculture.

Losses to rice—a cash crop and export earner—are expected to slash rural incomes, while the destruction of maize fields could drive up poultry feed prices, impacting meat and egg affordability. More than 6,500 livestock deaths, mostly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, add to the blow for households that rely on animals for income, food and farm labour.

Still, unlike the devastation of 2022, when 2.6mn hectares of Kharif crops were lost, this year’s floods are expected to cause more localised and short-term food insecurity. Stronger macroeconomic fundamentals—higher foreign exchange reserves, a more stable rupee and easing food inflation—are providing some buffer.

Rainfall data show that eastern Pakistan has endured 150% to 200% of average seasonal rainfall this year, among the highest on record. The deluge has been fed not only by Pakistan’s own monsoon but also by extreme rains in northern India, swelling rivers that flow across the border. Forecasts suggest that while the monsoon is beginning to retreat, elevated rainfall could persist in Sindh and Balochistan into late September, sustaining flood risks.

For farmers and rural households, the floods are both an immediate shock and a long-term challenge. Disruptions to agricultural labour have already reduced incomes, though the Rabi season could bring new opportunities if planting proceeds. Lessons from 2022 suggest that coordinated government and donor support in supplying seeds and fertiliser will be vital to prevent lasting damage to wheat production.

The crisis underscores the fragility of Pakistan’s agricultural system, which remains heavily exposed to climate extremes, the report said. The increasing frequency of catastrophic monsoon floods threatens not only rural livelihoods but also the country’s food security and export competitiveness. With rice, maize and cotton all hit this year, the imperative for climate-resilient infrastructure, improved flood management, and diversified cropping systems has become more urgent.

For now, the scale of recovery will depend on how quickly waters recede, how effectively farmers can access inputs for the Rabi season, and whether relief measures can prevent the displacement of millions from cascading into a deeper food security crisis.